SMH analysis across reports

The theme since this rally started has been Semiconductors. Semis have moved +45% in 5 weeks. This is the strongest group by far however it is currently the most extended it has EVER been in history. The best thing would be it consolidates and rests for a few weeks. This group has showed its hand as the leaders so as semis eventually digest and extended leaders offer secondary entry points, those stocks will become focus.

Semis have been by far the strongest group the past 6 weeks. This is the best group to lead. Price action last week finally cooled off after being very extended... now watching to see do we trade tight and let MA's catch up, or do we pull back deeper to an MA. Either way this is the group to watch for either scenario as many of the leaders that went up too much will begin to offer really good secondary entry points.

THE group to focus on. Historical move higher.... was barely able to pull back or rest before more buyers stepped in.

Semis are the most important group in this market so SMH is top focus. Its still possible that we continue to chop and base build for a little longer, but also possible we don't after the strong bounce off the 10-week and close near highs.

3 weeks basing so far.

Semis led

Tight organized action into April, new highs.

Only 13% of semis remain above the 10-week one of the weakest groups in the market. This may end up being a base before we go higher but for right now its weak and an avoid.

Another rejection at the now declining 10-week. Have to stay open minded it could be building a big base but it looks more like topping action to me especially with the action in the individual semi stocks.

This is the chart that determines the environment. Up at a decision point we failed at last time. Push and close above = market goes higher imo

This move in semis is a change in character. First time since the top a strong week was immediately followed up by another strong week. Ideally they are making the first move and the rest of the market follows.

Third week of follow-through. Semis are the strongest group right now and have the most setups. This is a major change in character from the summer. I want to see them keep leading while the rest of growth follows. Continues to be my top focus.