Save your swing

Nick SchmidtAug 30, 2026

Growth continues to deteriorate even as leadership inside Software broadened. There are still pockets working, but this is not a week where I want to keep trying to force progress.

20D trend

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

Growth participation continued to narrow this week while at the same time the leadership within Software itself actually broadened. There are pockets working but it continues to be a very difficult market to make any progress in. Normally when the environment becomes extremely difficult the market is closer to a near term top or correction. Most recently in June it was difficult after the 5th and the Nasdaq corrected in July.

I'm aware though the S&P has been strong and near highs and we've had rotation in non-growth groups for a few weeks so maybe that keeps the general market from breaking down. Friday a lot of the non-growth got hit after the Fed meeting so next week we will see if the rotation into them continues or if we see money leave the market. All I know is when SPY is outperforming QQQ its not a market I am ever able to make much progress in.

This week

The theme is less is more.

I sat in cash during July and by the time the August follow-through day happened even though it failed I was refreshed and ready. There is a time to press and a time not to.

Right now there may be pockets of opportunity but for me its not an environment where I press to exploit the easy window.

After last week Im mentally exhausted and if that window opened up again I wouldn't be refreshed and ready to make the most of it.

This week I want to step back stop trying so hard to make something happen. Make sure I'm ready to swing hard when my window opens up.

Quick look at growth ETFs

Another rejection at the now declining 10-week. Have to stay open minded it could be building a big base but it looks more like topping action to me especially with the action in the individual semi stocks.

Lower higher, followed through lower after bearish engulfing week

DRAM

Rejected for now at the declining 10 week. Could still be basing but total avoid for now remains weak and looks more like a top to me at the moment.

Looked like it was breaking down earlier in the week but closed looking like a shakeout and near highs.

Held on like software with big earnings reactions in the group. Sitting on 10-week

Quick non-growth ETF review

Broke out of a 7 month base last week and for now looks like a retest. Next week we will see if it confirms resistance - support.

So far pullback is still above the 4-week. The group still is a current leading group.

Gold and silver miners pulled back aggressively but GDX is still holding up and above the rising 4-week

Plan for this week

There are only a few stocks I am interested in watching this week that if I were to take a trade at all it would be one of them even though I am not looking to do much this week at all. These are listed under My Focus below.

• I'm not interested in trading non-growth this week but I still provided some in charts below that are near notable levels for anyone that is.

• Even though cybersecurity remains still relatively strong I'm not interested but still provided some in charts below near notable levels.

• Software remains its own beast. I included some near levels of interest below as well.

Focus

One of the best looking charts in the market. It is a big liquid name and just had a huge earnings move followed by 3 weeks tight at the highs. Not off the bottom like many others, very constructive

3 weeks tight after a big move off lows. Its technically part of the AI trade that has been deteriorating but think this deserves its own attention.

Big liquid leader, big earnings move to reignite new trend and continues to climb. $200 level is major base breakout to watch for.

Sitting in both the software and crypto groups that continue to be strong. XYZ is potentially nearing a 4 year base breakout. This looks similar to RNG and DOCN, other softwares that have major stage 2 uptrends. Big bases I prioritize because they can sustain bigger moves.

Notable Charts

Themes in order of one-week RS.

Software

IGV vs QQQ4-wk RS+11.2%1-wk RS+5.5%

Collaboration & Content Workflow

Resistance to support flip last week with the retest now 4-week crossing above.

Now above its prior resistance area with 10-week crossing above.

Extended for a new buy but approaching a prior resistance area. Consolidating below or pushing through is notable.

Now above all key moving averages and looks like all of the software names that previously have been coming up the right side

Sitting above multi-year pivot and trailing rising 10-week

Workforce & Payroll

Resistance - support flip last week continues to ride the 4-week up like many software names.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

3 weeks tight near highs

Cloud Communications

3 weeks tight near highs at its pivot.

Extended for a new buy but unreal strength out of a multi-year base that continues to make new highs. Worth monitoring for when it consolidates.

Resistance to support flip so far. 3-weeks in a tight range with all key moving averages sloping up

Cybersecurity

HACK vs QQQ4-wk RS+3.9%1-wk RS+3.1%

Still confirmed prior resistance acting as support and had a big earnings move. Wide & loose though

Still basing, kinda wide and loose

Not technically broken worth monitoring but so far good earnings and it sold off below its $100 pivot not good action last week

Big earnings move out of its recent base to new highs. The group isnt trading clean but action like this generally means renewed interest so worth noting

Held 10-week so far basing

Healthcare & Biotech

XLV vs QQQ4-wk RS+1.1%1-wk RS-2.4%

Large-Cap Pharma

Interested in if it holds rising 4-week or trades tight sideways.

Precious Metals

GDX vs QQQ4-wk RS+29.1%1-wk RS-3.5%

Faded at previous resistance after a big move. Confirmation the level matters if it gets through. Above rising 4-week

Closed a hair below its pivot. So far not confirmed resistance - support flip but level and rising 4-week remain important

Nasty fade still above rising 4 week and pivot for now

Faded at prior resistance after a big move off lows. Above 4-week still

Above 4-week and held 30-week

Above 4-week and prior pivot

Still above 4-week could be resting after a big move

AI Infrastructure

TCAI vs QQQ4-wk RS-6.6%1-wk RS-3.7%

Hyperscaler AI Capex

Respected prior pivot so far.

Trading tight above prior pivot and all key moving averages bunched up.