Pause or pullback?

After 6 weeks of going straight up we finally had our first pause. The big questions for me this week are:

Do we see the leaders of this cycle Semiconductors digest or pull back deeper?

Does money rotate into more growth, or energy?

Last week we saw Space, Software & Neoclouds acting well and seeing rotation. This is good as rotation stays within growth. A bull market needs to be led by HIGH GROWTH GROUPS. Towards the end of the week we saw macro concerns and rotation into Energy while growth in general gapped lower and closed near lows of day.

I really tune most out and just watch the charts. If rotation into energy continues this week then we likely see the deeper pullback in semis and tech vs just a digestion.

Either scenario I can't be too negative. Maybe I get stopped out of some positions like MU and others, but the thing that has me the most optimistic is we have had many big volume gap ups in Software on great earnings. When you see a growth group have big earnings moves it usually is a good indication that group is going to keep seeing money go in.

Theres been a lot of discussion on bad breadth the past week. I discussed it too. When you see it especially when extended, its likely we do see some weakness come. But I wanted to share this post by Walter on the A/D during the dot com bubble.

Its 1 data point, don't focus too much on it. Just watch the charts. Feels similar to everybody not buying the rally because of low volume.

APLD

TSLA

Above $400 keeps the 5 year base thesis intact. Candle last week indicates maybe it needs to pull back again. $400 level I'm watching on real weakness + higher low. $430 the near term level to break on strength.

DDOG

Big vol gap up above $200 livermore level and 4 years base high. Interested on a retest.

DOCN

Current position... ideally see it push out of here above past 2 highs.

CIFR

2 levels to watch. On strength move through 23.15 for official breakout, or if it stays quiet inside here again vs ~20 level. I like the lighter vol on this vs IREN

KLAC

Broke out of multi-month base to all time highs. Followed by price consolidating above prior ATH. So far clear resistance -> support. 10-week catching up too which is nice.

Strong action out of tight consolidation. Heading up towards highs. 2 levels to watch strength or weakness.

As mentioned the group likely needs to rest and hopefully it does... but some quality names in the group to monitor.

While the group itself may need rest its worth noting ASML had a quiet inside week retest of a multi month base. Looking at this chart alone without any other context it looks very actionable and constructive.

I exited last week just to manage my equity curve but it is acting constructively. It retested its breakout level and consolidated above it for 3 weeks, then broke above that consolidation and retested it last week. Interested to see what it does this week. At the end of the day I look for structure and this is showing structure.

Hasnt been the best action but still building 1 big base. Watching for last week to be a potential higher low.

Not near buy level but leader. First red to green friday.

Massive base. Watching for potential higher low last week? Hitting into base high and pulling back proves that level is significant.

The market leader..... acted stronger than MU on friday. Just monitoring to gauge the market.

Big earnings gap out of a huge base. Software leader to watch.

Higher low. Massive character change on massive volume. Don't see how to get in here so will monitor... but look at that volume.