Weekly report · Jul 19, 2026

Tight action or no action

The market remains wide, loose, and difficult. Warning signs continue to pile up as many leaders look to be breaking down. I am waiting for price action to tighten, become more organized, and new leadership to show up.

20D trend

UptrendDowntrendNo clear trend

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

Since the June 5 Trend Stopper candle, the action in the market has slowly become more wide & loose, more volatile, and stopped making new highs.

April's advance was tight and controlled. We had clear leadership breaking out together from clean bases and following through. June and July have turned wide and loose. Breakouts have struggled to follow through, good earnings are being sold into instead of rewarded, and last week we saw the first real signs of leaders potentially beginning to breakdown.

We have continued to see rotation in the market but rotation is different than leadership. I don't see any clear leadership. The best group by far has been Cybersecurity, however alone it can't lead the market and the action within it although displaying RS has remained wide & loose.

Environment > setups

Since June 5, the avg daily range of stocks in the market has become much larger while at the same time lacking clear direction. Now with memory and some semis showing signs of potentially breaking down the most important thing to remember is its not our job to catch the bottom.

The biggest countertrend rallies happen while a market is breaking down, and one big green day can create the feeling that every favorite stock has bottomed. Friday for example had some of the biggest intraday bounces in names that sucked everybody in only to fade into the close. Our job is not to catch the exact bottom. It is to wait until the odds are in our favor... and for that we need to see price action get more organized.

There is a time to track RS and a time to trade it

Cybersecurity remains the clearest pocket of strength at the moment which is notable. But I am just tracking. Looking at the stocks that have displayed the most RS like DELL last week looked promising breaking out only to fade aggressively. The stocks that are showing RS near highs when the market wind is at its back will be the top names to focus on. Without the market behind them for now we just track.

Plan for this week

Let the market prove itself. I want to see price action tighten, become more organized, and start rewarding good behavior before I add exposure. I do not want to mistake the first sharp bounce for a new uptrend or chase the names that move the most simply because they create FOMO.

If I take a trade, its smaller size, a clear invalidation level, and waiting for good feedback before I add any more exposure. Any trades taken if at all are not trying to swing for the fence to make money, they are to get feedback.

The evidence that would change my mind is straightforward:

Daily ranges tighten, breakouts start following through, and strong earnings are rewarded again instead of used to sell into. I also want to see the former leaders stop making lower lows and begin building real bases.

For now, the focus is observation.

I am watching whether cybersecurity can keep leading and whether semis and memory can absorb the recent damage and rebase.

More wide reversals, failed rallies, or selling into strength would be evidence that the market is deteriorating further.

What I am watching

These are the stocks and themes I am watching for better leadership, cleaner setups, and improved feedback.

Theme 1 of 6

Cybersecurity

This is still the clearest pocket of relative strength. I am watching whether these names can hold their recent gains while the rest of the market stays loose. If they begin breaking down with everything else, that would be another sign conditions are deteriorating.

HACK is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksHACK +15.7%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekHACK +1.9%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

FTNT

Cybersecurity

Again strong action vs most of the market, watching to see if RS can sustain or its last to be pulled down.

CRWD

Cybersecurity

After breaking out 2 weeks ago it failed to follow through but stayed above the breakout level, then followed through last week although not cleanly. Overall while this is RS, the price action still remains choppy and not the most encouraging yet.

PANW

Cybersecurity

Leader within cybersecurity. It acts fairly well, continuing to ride the 4-week. Still no interest in trying to participate without broader market cooperation.

RBRK

Cybersecurity

+0.8% from level

This is sitting right around a key pivot, which makes the next reaction useful. I want to see it hold the area and tighten up rather than whip around it. Clean respect and follow-through would support the cybersecurity leadership case, although once again the original breakout 2 weeks ago failed to follow-through which would be more indicative of a cooperative market.

Theme 2 of 6

AI Infrastructure

These were the original leaders, but now the question is whether the damage can be absorbed. A sharp bounce is not enough. I want tighter ranges, failed downside momentum, and higher lows before treating this group as leadership again.

SMH is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksSMH -15.7%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekSMH -8.9%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

NBIS

AI Infrastructure

Look at the big down candle in November. This is what I consider a kill candle. It needed time to work off and NBIS build a beautiful multi-month base that it broke out of in April. Now, the action is incredibly sloppy and loose. Does it mean we break down and continue lower? No way to know, maybe it starts a new base. But in order to become appealing again it needs quite a bit of constructive sideways action like early 2026.

ARM

AI Infrastructure

Look at how clean and organized this base was before it broke out in April. Now after it has started to break down price has become sloppy. Does it keep going lower? Or rebase? Nobody knows, but if it rebases, we want to see price begin to look as clean as it did Nov - April.

INTC

AI Infrastructure

A few weeks ago this was my top focus. Now look how wide & loose it has become. Total avoid unless it rebases and tightens up.

FLEX

AI Infrastructure

Look how tight this was acting at one point. Tight action before the big April May move. Then was continuing to trade fairly tight.... and fell apart. This is the type of action you don't want to see.

AMD

AI Infrastructure

One of the strongest semis that has been displaying RS. Watching this for insight into the group. Beginning to break down confirms we are likely going to correct lower.

DELL

AI Infrastructure

This was one of the cleanest charts tight near highs that attempted to breakout and faded aggressively. Its still not broken its just an avoid as the general market behaves awfully. If we start to see the market begin strengthening and acting more organized, and DELL looks like this, then this is RS that becomes a focus to lead the next leg higher.

CRDO

AI Infrastructure

CRDO was a leader, now off highs a lot. It bounced at a key level, but price action is extremely sloppy. Maybe it holds and price bases and tightens up, but until then just observing.

Theme 3 of 6

Memory & Storage

Memory is where the good-news-gets-sold problem is easiest to see. MU blowout earnings sold into. Memory sentiment is its the biggest bottleneck in the AI trade yet we have been seeing what looks to be distribution.

SMH is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksSMH -15.7%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekSMH -8.9%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

SNDK

Memory & Storage

SNDK has closed below its 10-week for the first time since its entire monster trend. Whether this has topped or not is something we will have to find out in time but that alone is a massive change in character. The 4-week is sloping lower. Its likely we see a bounce higher before going lower so I'll be watching if it runs into the 4-week, potentially eyeing a short.

MU

Memory & Storage

MU delivered amazing earnings and was sold anyway, which is one of the clearest signs that the market is not behaving well. Same story as SNDK. I believe we see a big bounce before breaking lower, so I'll be watching to see if it finds continued resistance at the declining 4-week, potentially eyeing a short.

Theme 4 of 6

Financials & Fintech

ARKF is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksARKF +1.6%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekARKF -2.3%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

DAVE

Financials & Fintech

Insanely strong and acts very well, but the same strength lacks in the rest of the group.

HOOD

Financials & Fintech

HOOD was one of the cleaner charts, now its trading awfully wide & loose. Maybe if it can tighten up and more names in the group follow suit we can see a new group of leaders, but for now messy.

Theme 5 of 6

Software

Pockets of strength within the group but way too many landmines that make it difficult for the good looking ones to make real progress.

IGV is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksIGV +4.2%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekIGV +0.4%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

BAND

Software

-0.0% from level

Incredible RS.... not interested without market cooperation. This will be on the RS list and if it looks similar when the general market is ready it could make a leader.

FROG

Software

More RS but just observing. If the general market begins to clean up and cooperate, charts that look like this basing near highs would be top priority.

DDOG

Software

RS but same just observing. If the market ends up cooperating this type of RS is indicative of a market leader to focus on. But for now just observing.

Theme 6 of 6

Semiconductors

Semis have taken some of the biggest damage and are the most important group because they are the leaders of this cycle. Maybe they consolidate and base build and tighten up over the coming weeks, but for me to get interested at all on the long side price action would need to tighten up a lot.

SMH is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksSMH -15.7%QQQ -6.1%SPY -0.5%

Last weekSMH -8.9%QQQ -4.2%SPY -1.5%

KLIC

Semiconductors

If you look to the left of the chart we haven't seen similar action to the last 2 weeks in over 10 months. Its not healthy. Does it mean we topped? Nobody knows but like everything else its a total avoid until it rebases, tightens up, or else rallies into declining MA's are shortable.

LSCC

Semiconductors

Wide & loose. Needs a lot of time to rebase and tighten up, or on watch for rallies into the declining 4-week for potential short.

TXN

Semiconductors

Still basing, RS, but again not interested while the rest of the group falls apart.

ASML

Semiconductors

Blow out earnings sold into. A repeatable pattern we've been seeing.