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Leaders moving first?

Big picture

The only stocks working last week were AI infra names for the most part so we didn't get a big broad start to a new trend yet. The current environment continues to be tricky and still day by day.

Usually if only a select group of stocks are acting well while the rest of the market sells off its not sustainable.

They cant diverge forever so the question is does the market follow them higher? Or are they the last to crack?

We will find out together but 2 reasons why I am optimistic here still:

  1. If there is a group of stocks holding up on their own that can lead the market, its growth stocks. Even moreso semiconductors. Growth stocks lead and start new uptrends. An uptrend needs high growth stocks to lead it. This scenario we are in is better than in July the only stocks strong being restaurants.
  2. My feedback has been good so far. Feedback is the number 1 most important thing to my decision making. When it becomes difficult to make progress and I start chopping myself up thats the first sign that has me reduce exposure before I see it clearly in the market. Right now based on how bad things looked last week with yields/news/breadth, my stocks the growth ones I care about held up well.

Does good feedback continue? I don't know but from my experience if I have cushion and I think it could be a new resumption of the uptrend I'm willing give up recent gains to find out.

Link to an article below on how I use feedback in my process.

Despite the rest of the market Nasdaq made a new weekly closing high breaking out of this 4 month range we've been in. At the moment it looks strong. This is the index that matters most to my process so most focused here. QQQ leading SPY is better environment

QQQ weekly chart for Unclassified. Latest close $744.50; weekly move +3.2%.

QQQ · Weekly chart

This move in semis is a change in character. First time since the top a strong week was immediately followed up by another strong week. Ideally they are making the first move and the rest of the market follows.

SMH weekly chart for Semiconductors. Latest close $606.56; weekly move +5.9%.

SMH · Weekly chart

This week I want to see

  • Participation broaden
  • Software and semis start to move together
  • Strength followed through by more strength
  • No big overnight gaps or less

I see breadth deteriorating, yields going up and even oil still relatively strong. The market has had every reason to break down and QQQ made a new closing high. It doesn't make sense and that is what I'm interested in.

Yea things look pretty bad... so why are these growth stocks making new all time highs? I'm not going to try to outsmart them and let them lead the way. Usually when stuff doesn't go up when it should, or down when it should, its worth paying close attention.

I posted a video discussing how this week I'm tuning everything but growth out. Watch here

Current holdings

70% invested · 30% cash

StockPortfolio %
MU15%
MRVL15%
ASML15%
PLTR15%
AMD10%

MU

15%
If I can get 9% cushion before earnings I'll sit.

MRVL

15%
Good early entry here ideally if it breaks out the cushion lets me sit comfortably. Perfect scenario it trends the 4 week.

ASML

15%
Ideally get get an close in the upper half of its multi-month base. Then I could sit comfortably if it needs to make another higher low.

PLTR

15%
Id like to see software snap back and join next week and PLTR follows through. Dont want it to return back into its range here

AMD

10%
Holding this as tight as possible. Biggest leader at the moment. In a perfect world I can let it trend the 4-week.

Plan

Let feedback guide me. If my positions keep working then I will sit tight. Last week the market still made it impossible to buy strength without getting chopped up. Any new trades Im looking for quiet spots, pullbacks... no buying strength until the market rewards it.

Focus list

INTC

AI Compute & Accelerators

This is a massive leader right now with AMD. Hard to get involved now but if the market does resume higher I want to own this. Have to find a way in.

INTC weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $123.00; weekly move +13.3%; 1.8% below saved level.

AMD

AI Compute & Accelerators

Last week I mentioned this is top focus and an entry on strength would be uncomfortable which it was. But strong close and happy to have a position. This is the current leader. Now ideally it can trend the 4-week.

AMD weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $630.63; weekly move +12.6%.

SPCX

GPU Neoclouds

Continues to hold the 4-week since breaking above the 140 pivot. If we got a tight inside week I would look to start a position.

SPCX weekly chart for GPU Neoclouds. Latest close $148.68; weekly move -2.6%.

PLTR

AI Applications & Data Platforms

Got a position last week and it closed strong despite relative weakness in software. Ideally this holds the breakout from this recent consolidation. Major pivot is 200 above which would set PLTR to new ATH

PLTR weekly chart for AI Applications & Data Platforms. Latest close $189.67; weekly move +6.8%.

Charts by theme

Themes sorted by number of setups

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

DELL

I tried to sneak in unsuccessfully this week but it closed beautifully on the 4-week. If I was long from the actual breakout I would be holding until it closes below the 4-week. Strong stocks trend the 4-week.

DELL weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $562.89; weekly move -0.9%.

NTAP

Subtle strength closing above 200. Not my favorite setup but near highs while others are off highs so strong RS and looks ready to break to new highs.

NTAP weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $201.15; weekly move +1.7%; 0.9% above saved level.

HPE

One of the first to move like DELL which means they are leaders. Just like DELL these should both trail the 4-week. The 4-week makes a good way to get involved as well.

HPE weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $62.94; weekly move +3.6%.

FLEX

Lagging others at the moment but holding the 30-week, approaching the downtrend line, and price has been trading tight for 5 weeks. Watch for follow through next week. An open in the wick would also be out of the downtrend line.

FLEX weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $114.68; weekly move +5.7%; 0.6% above Trend line.

SMCI

Nice breakout after tightening up and giving a clear pivot. 4 week now is above the pivot. If this is strong it will trend above the 4-week.

SMCI weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $43.26; weekly move +10.7%.

Optical & Photonics

LITE

Continues to consolidate near highs here while the other photonic names are relatively weak. If the group turns up this is the best looking one to lead

LITE weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $941.65; weekly move +1.2%.

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

SMTC

Breakout followed by a pivot retest. This is very common. Makes for good entries as it confirms resistance -> support flip.

SMTC weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $182.30; weekly move -1.5%.

MXL

Follow through and 4 week curling up underneath price. Approaching its major pivot from April. A close above would trigger an official breakout of this long base.

MXL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $93.84; weekly move +15.7%.

ALAB

After resistance -> support flip it followed through powerfully last week. Looking like a semi leader if the group follows through.

ALAB weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $364.62; weekly move +20.2%.

AI Compute & Accelerators

CBRS

Tough to trade it has wide spreads but its bottom is rounding out as it approaches the 215 area it has struggled at.

CBRS weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $206.75; weekly move +4.2%.

ARM

Not as strong of a weekly close as others but nothing wrong looks good. I would be interested in an entry if it traded sideways next week or the 4-week catches up.

ARM weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $310.32; weekly move +12.6%.

Collaboration & Content Workflow

TEAM

Strong leader. Fairly tight.... failed to follow through like most software last week but if the group gets going this looks like a top name

TEAM weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $187.74; weekly move -2.2%; 0.9% below saved level.

NOW

Maybe building a base, may be breaking down. If it continues sideways and tightens up next week it will look more constructive

NOW weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $135.62; weekly move +0.1%.

Industry-Specific Operations

MANH

3 weeks tight near highs. 10-week under price supported so far.

MANH weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $206.03; weekly move -2.6%.

VEEV

New weekly closing high possibly breaking out of a 4 week range

VEEV weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $280.68; weekly move +7.9%; 1.6% above saved level.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

SNOW

Another tight week

SNOW weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $335.94; weekly move +1.1%; 1.5% above saved level.

DOCN

Pushed through its resistance level and closed above it despite fading most of the move. Open in the wick or retest of the pivot would have me interested in a spot

DOCN weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $139.75; weekly move +7.4%; 1.8% above saved level.

DDOG

A leader in software acting constructive. Id like to see it tighten up a bit but might not happen

DDOG weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $268.13; weekly move +16.6%.

Cloud Communications

RNG

One of the strongest software names still riding the 4-week. Last weeks move faded... feels like it would be better if it could build more of a base before moving again.

RNG weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $76.16; weekly move +6.0%.

BAND

A retest next week of the pivot area 54-57 would be resistance -> support confirmation and a pullback to 10 and 4 week ma.

BAND weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $61.81; weekly move +23.1%.

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

TXN

One of the cleanest downtrend line breaks in semis. It came out of a fairly tight consolidation area instead of being wide & loose. On watch for it to pause and hold above MAs before following through.

TXN weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $278.07; weekly move +4.3%.

LSCC

Shakeout below 30-week and last week closed above all key MAs and down trend line. A pause and inside week near the top of this candle if it happens would be a good spot to get involved.

LSCC weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $128.05; weekly move +15.4%.

Semicap Equipment

KLAC

Through downtrend line last week still sitting in the cluster of moving averages. Not my favorite chart here but if the market follows through to the upside this looks ready to move.

KLAC weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $187.92; weekly move +6.2%.

AMAT

Shook out below the 30-week and closed through the downtrend line. High of week is the 10-week to keep an eye on it next week.

AMAT weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $485.00; weekly move +9.1%; 2.8% above Trend line.

LRCX

Resistance -> support flip and now above all key moving averages. Looks prime to follow through is semis continue.

LRCX weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $315.21; weekly move +9.4%.

Test & Packaging

ASX

After a bullish engulfing candle last week it followed through to the upside with a new weekly closing high. Its sitting on its pivot here. A retest or consolidation on the pivot could offer another spot to get involved. Watch for the 4-week to cross above also.

ASX weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $44.31; weekly move +6.4%.

TER

5 month base at highs so far. Big bases can support big moves. Worth keeping an eye on.

TER weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $398.38; weekly move +7.2%.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSEM

Sitting above its recent consolidation pivot for now and all MAs. Near pivot gives a low risk spot to get involved if semis follow through.

TSEM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Latest close $230.47; weekly move +3.1%; 2.2% above saved level.

TSM

Above all MAs and first week out of its recent 10 week consolidation. Also has the 4 week crossing above its pivot.

TSM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Latest close $450.61; weekly move +3.7%.

Healthcare & Biotech

Large-Cap Pharma

JNJ

No changes from last week continues to consolidate above its pivot.

JNJ weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $271.22; weekly move +0.5%.

MRK

Still in this 5 week consolidation since its move higher. Nothing wrong. High of week was top pivot which is evidence the pivot matters.

MRK weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $148.78; weekly move +1.3%; 1.8% above saved level.

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

GH

Break out followed by a pivot retest. So far constructive and what I would expect to see in most breakouts which is why its not worth chasing. Nice resistance -> support flip.

GH weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $177.25; weekly move -1.2%.

NTRA

Clearly not a buy now if not in but strong breakout closing high of week, then follow through closing high of week. If I was in Id use the 4-week on a closing basis but this type of follow through action is what we want to see everywhere.

NTRA weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $412.56; weekly move +11.7%.

Memory & Storage

Storage Systems & Components

SIMO

Above all moving averages and its consolidation pivot.

SIMO weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $276.23; weekly move +1.5%; 2.6% above saved level.

WDC

Sitting at the downtrend line and bunched up in all moving averages. Its not displaying RS in the group yet but price is notably tight and I like that.

WDC weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $456.81; weekly move +3.5%.

STX

Above its recent 4 week consolidation area still within its big base. High of week is where it has continued to find resistance so a close above would be notable. Last time it tried to push through it didnt have the group behind it.

STX weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $916.83; weekly move +6.8%; 1.7% below saved level.

Memory Producers

SNDK

Got stopped out of this but doing nothing wrong. Relatively weak last week vs the rest of memory but sitting on top of its recent consolidation pivot with 4 week curling up under price.

SNDK weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1777.80; weekly move -0.8%.

Financials & Fintech

Trading & Digital Asset Platforms

COIN

Watching for potential pivot retest or inside week

COIN weekly chart for Trading & Digital Asset Platforms. Latest close $195.11; weekly move +0.4%.

HOOD

A bit wide and loose here. Respecting the 4-week so far. If its strong it will trend it.

HOOD weekly chart for Trading & Digital Asset Platforms. Latest close $119.40; weekly move -0.4%.

Consumer Fintech & Payments

XYZ

Tough name to trade but thesis is if it breaks through 5 year level above it could be big. Tough part is getting in it trades not great. Watching to see if 75 prior resistance shows support.

XYZ weekly chart for Consumer Fintech & Payments. Latest close $76.42; weekly move +0.2%; 2.1% above saved level.

Cybersecurity

ZS

Watching how it acts if it gets to 187 pivot

ZS weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $193.05; weekly move -2.2%.

RBRK

If this comes in and retests around the 100-102 pivot I'd be interested in trying another position.

RBRK weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $109.55; weekly move +2.7%.

Theres no rush. No chasing anything. If this is a real new trend new opportunities show up week over week. Try to focus on a few names closely instead of spreading attention everywhere.

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