Weekly report · Aug 9, 2026

Strong but Different

The market followed through & we have clear growth leadership, but the action underneath is still choppy. This is an uptrend just one I think will be more difficult than the last.

20D trend

UptrendDowntrendNo clear trend

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

Coming into last week we saw improved action but were still waiting for confirmation to see if that market was ready to follow-through. The market ended up following through powerfully and officially is back in an uptrend.

Even though we followed through powerfully I don't want to ignore how difficult the week felt. The action was fairly choppy with wide ranges and some overnight gaps still.

I think the choppiness is related to 2 main things:

Software is leading which is made up of a lot of stocks that were previously beaten down, while Semis that led in April aren't fully participating they are continuing to repair and build bases. That creates somewhat of a tug o war feeling.
We had our follow-through during the start of earnings which as been full of big reactions. Mostly positive reactions across Software but some negative especially in Semis that puts overall pressure on the market.

If the market was weak the Semi reactions to earnings could have easily broken them down and followed through lower but we saw them hold up so far and continue to base.

The most important thing for a new uptrend is clear leadership, and broad growth participation. We have clear leadership in Software, Cybersecurity, and despite not full participation like we had in April we have a lot more growth starting to participate while Semis are repairing and building bases.

Outside of Software itself showing strength all week and leading we had very impressive earning moves in some of them such as TWLO PLTR and TEAM. The huge candles and moves is a sign of renewed interest across the group.

Software & Semis Expectations

I want to quickly show charts of IGV and SMH to explain why I think this environment is going to remain more difficult than April/May.

Looking at SMH below, when we broke out in April and Semis led the market higher, SMH came out of a fairly clean base at highs. When you look at Software IGV, the chart is not organized and tight in the same way that SMH was. It is pretty wide & loose coming off of fairly recent lows.

SMH led April from a clean base to new highs following through. IGV is leading now and has a lot of work to get back to highs, and is likely to see more aggressive pullbacks when it gets extended.

SMH

Tight organized action into April, new highs.

IGV

Wide & loose under highs.

Plan for this week

The most important thing for pressing the gas or pumping the breaks is feedback in my own trades. If I'm not able to make progress, the answer is not to trade bigger ever. I need to earn my right to get more aggressive by getting traction and making progress.

What that means for me is new trades keeping overall risk small until it starts working. I'll be looking to be risking anywhere from 0.1-0.25% of my account on new trades until I start making progress... then can size up and risk 0.25-0.5%.

I need to still get meaningful size positions while risking so little so the way to do that is tight stops. I am assuming new positions will take a couple tries in this environment before it works and want to go into end of the day with some cushion in new trades. Tight stops let the trade either work right away with size, or get me out quick with small overall account risk. I am fine taking 5 0.1% account losses before one with size works. I would not be fine with taking 5 0.5% losses.

Multiple scenarios

I think there is a chance software stocks keep rallying and require more aggressive entries to get involved such as in a previous week's wick which I share below.

I also think there is a high chance we see aggressive pullbacks in software stocks similar to thursday's stress test because of how chaotic the overall group trades and how extended many names are.

If we get that weakness again those are likely to be the best days to get involved so to make sure I'm prepared this time all new trades will have small overall risk and I'll be looking for it to push away from stops by end of day so another open like thursday doesn't expose me to more planned risk.

Leadership

Semis have a lot of strong candles last week across the group so need to be prepared for them to firm up over the next few weeks and keep an eye on them, but I do think the main focus should remain in Software the new leading group of this cycle for now for main exposure.

The first stress test thursday Semi's were the first to go red to green which I thought was odd. I think its all part of the basing process and we will continue to see some alternating days where Semis are strong and Software is weak again, but think those are the opportunities to get into software if not already.

Some semis can offer good spots to get long over the next week in low risk spots but I think the overall group still needs time before it picks up momentum again and having Software exposure while they lead is more important.

Overall, slow & steady, keeping risk extra tight so I can still struggle to get long without setting myself back, and keeping a very open mind there can be many surprises ahead.

Current Positions

HPE

20%

Still one of the best charts in the entire market. Last week I thought would be stopped but the end of day push gave this a strong textbook breakout. I want to see this follow through this week and have the 4-week rise above the $50 pivot.

Avg cost

$49.30

Last

$53.22

P&L

+7.95%

Focus

PLTR

Huge move on earnings closing at high of week on unusually big volume. Hard to get involved here but this action looks like the start of a new trend and I will watch closely to get involved.

OKTA

-0.4% from level

In the leading group and trading within a tight range for over a month. Watching for an official push and close above $150, or quiet inside week to try to get long again.

CSCO

0.0% from level

Fairly tight multi-month base near highs. Continues to find resistance at ~122 area. A close above could spark new momentum. AI infra group needs time but charts like this will be the first to act and show a clear change. Earnings on Aug 12

Notable Charts

Themes in order of one-week RS.

Precious Metals

I don't normally watch gold & silver miners but in 2025 they showed how capable of a strong trend they are and they were the largest weekly movers this week so something to keep an eye on if tech continues to be choppy or waiting for tech leader to setup. No individual commentary but my favorite charts in the group.

GDX vs QQQ4-wk RS+19.4%1-wk RS+15.4%

BVN

B

+0.6% from level

HL

First close above the declining 10-week in months which is significant because it respected it as resistance.

NEM

AU

AUGO

Software

IGV vs QQQ4-wk RS+11.5%1-wk RS+3.3%

Collaboration & Content Workflow

PATH

Above the 30-week with now rising 4 & 10 weeks. No good entry around here but should still keep an eye on it for it to offer one over the next few weeks.

ADBE

Each prior rally attempt since ADBE has been in a downtrend was rejected at the 30-week. Last week was the first close above which is a notable change especially as it is now in the leading group. It could become actionable on an inside week.

DBX

TEAM

Another monster trend starting candle on earnings looking like a new leader. Watching for possible in the wick on strength or else an inside week.

Cloud Communications

RNG

Broke out of a multi-year base in a powerful way now in a fresh stage two uptrend. Can't buy it up here, but pull back to the 4-week could offer an opportunity or if it trades sideways and builds a 2-3 week range. The powerful move out of the multi-year base makes it super interesting. Just need to wait for it to offer a new good spot.

TWLO

Powerful breakout of a multi-month base to new highs. If it opens next week in this week's upper wick it could be a way to get involved if it follows through similar to RNG without pulling back. Trading in the wick is a subtle sign of strength and a way to sneak into strength.

FIVN

Not actionable but strong weekly candle is good sign for group and market.

Industry-Specific Operations

SHOP

Big earnings driven trend starting candle. Similar to PLTR. On watch for it to consolidate a week or 2 and offer a tight spot to get involved.

MANH

+2.3% from level

Closed in the prior big week's wick subtle strength. Watching to see if it trades sideways another week before going higher. It would offer a good spot to manage risk.

BB

Prior RS name that ended up cracking now looks like it is turning up and trading in a 3-week tight range right on its support. Looks like it could be a failed breakdown turned constructive base.

TOST

Its low in May marked the bottom and it recently broke above the 30-week in July which is a significant character change. Sideways action that lets the rising 4-week catch up would setup a good entry, or if it opens in this week's wick similar to how it did to the week before it again it could offer a way to sneak in.

APPF

Similar character change, above 30-week, and in the previous week's wick action. Opening in the wick again is a way to sneak in on strength, or else waiting for it to trade sideways and consolidate.

Workforce & Payroll

No individual commentary on these but all coming up powerfully, trending the 4-week together sign of strength in this software cluster led by PCTY WDAY. Can watch for them to develop their first new consolidation.

ADP

PAYX

PCTY

WDAY

PAYC

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

SNOW

One of the RS stocks in software breaking to new highs and following through. This is a software leader to keep an eye on for entry opportunity over the next few weeks.

GTLB

AI Applications & Data Platforms

SOUN

Powerful weekly candle right into the declining 30-week which has been resistance. Now with software leading, a follow through above the 30-week is significant.

Cybersecurity

HACK vs QQQ4-wk RS+6.3%1-wk RS+2.8%

PANW

Another leader in cybersecurity to watch for the group. New weekly closing high outside of its range. I would like to see it follow through as a sign of strong leadership.

CRWD

Leader in cybersecurity to watch. So far breakout in June, retest/shakeout, and new high.

RBRK

Strong breakout through prior weekly closing high. Interested in any potential weakness into the prior closing high area ~84 that successfully retests for an entry.

Semiconductors

SMH vs QQQ4-wk RS-4.3%1-wk RS+2.6%

Test & Packaging

TER

Still building a multi-month base near highs and was supported at the 30-week. Keeping an eye on it.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSEM

Constructive base near highs. 30-week support and last week engulfed the previous week. Keeping an eye on it.

Consumer

XLY vs QQQ4-wk RS+2.6%1-wk RS-1.8%

Consumer

ABNB

Another massive earnings trend starting candle similar to SPOT & PLTR. No actionable entry yet but something that looks like the beginning of a new trend so want to watch for it to offer a range to get in.

Retail & Consumer Brands

TPR

Clean breakout of a 7 month base.

AI Infrastructure

TCAI vs QQQ4-wk RS-8.3%1-wk RS-2.5%

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

I'm keeping an eye on this group as last week had big candle's closing near highs of the week. It is likely they need more time to tighten up and build a right side but keep watch.

CRDO

Powerful bounce off of its original base pivot. Seems support being respected and this could become actionably if it tightens up a bit.

AVGO

My favorite chart in this infra cluster. Big weekly candle back above its original pivot closing at high of week. I will watch both the ~447 prior weekly closing high for confirmed strength if it follows through, or $400 prior base pivot to see if it finds support and makes a higher low.

AI Compute & Accelerators

CBRS

Very difficult to trade and now has earnings this week so have to wait until after to revisit but one of the best looking charts to me in the market.

INTC

First close above the 4-week since June. If INTC tightens up and forms a right side it could become a good opportunity. Still thing overall this looks better than many semis.

NVDA

When this is strong I feel it is an overall good sign for the market. Broke out of a long base in April, consolidated again and retested top of that base. Resistance - support flip.

Hyperscaler AI Capex

AMZN

+0.7% from level

Possible resistance - support flip.

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

This has been one of the top RS groups related to AI infra that held near highs building organized bases.

DELL

Not the biggest fan of how candles have been widening instead of tightening but still new weekly closing high in one of the top RS stocks with proper base in the market.

Datacenter Networking

CIEN

Sitting at 10-week & downtrend resistance after a shakeoutish candle. A break and close above would be a change in character and could spark new momentum.

Optical & Photonics

Another AI infra cluster than saw big weekly moves together possible RS to watch within the AI infra space. When clusters all show similar action it adds more weight for me.

AAOI

Found resistance at the 10-week, a close above would be significant and further evidence renewed interest in photonics cluster.

COHR

We want tight action and this is straight off lows to almost back to highs... but looks like significant renewed interest in the stock & cluster.

LITE

First weekly close above the 10 week, change in character

Healthcare & Biotech

XLV vs QQQ4-wk RS+3.4%1-wk RS-3.0%

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

Healthcare has been a strong theme and has some follow through action so I will keep an eye on

NTRA

GH

+0.9% from level

Constructive base near highs on watch to break out similar to NTRA