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Optimistic

Big picture

This has been a very tough market as growth hasn't been able to participate broadly together. The environment has been choppy and difficult to get anywhere.

August exhausted me from trying so hard to make progress only to go nowhere.

Something I've been saying for weeks is for the environment to get easier and open up a good window we need to see broad growth participation. It can't just be Softwaree.

Last week we saw strength in the old AI stocks similar to how we did 4 weeks ago which ended up failing. This may be similar and we see them fail again, the difference this time though that stands out to me is over the past 2 weeks the action in many Semiconductors and the QQQ in general has been much tighter than it has since the trend stopped in June.

That doesnt mean this attempt for them to join and go higher will work but its a constructive difference I'm atleast taking note of.

Wide & loose is never good so seeing tight organized price action is welcomed.

Semis/Memory will tell us which way

Most potential setups this week are the Semis & AI infra. They are all at declining trend lines and key moving averages that failed 4 weeks ago so I am watching them closest because either they fade again and nothing changes in the market, or they push through and growth starts broadening out. They are all at decision areas.

Memory has already broke above its levels and is showing strength. If they follow through and Semis follow them higher it should pull the market out of its recent range and create a wind at our back environment. Big IF though. Staying optimistic.

Its never easy to know if something is breaking down or basing in real-time, Semis have looked like breaking down, but last week was a sign maybe they are working on the right side of their bases which is tighter action and higher lows.

This is the chart that determines the environment. Up at a decision point we failed at last time. Push and close above = market goes higher imo

SMH weekly chart for Semiconductors. Latest close $567.01; weekly move +2.5%.

SMH · Weekly chart

Plan

Watching memory and the AI stocks as I think they pick the direction we go and give the most info. If they continue to show strength I will try to get some traction in a few.

Progressive exposure... if they get traction and we see follow through then I will add more exposure. If I still struggle to get traction then I don't earn the right to get aggressive.

Current holdings

Not recorded

No holdings update in this report.

Focus list

INTC

AI Compute & Accelerators

Coming up against its 10-week and declining trendline. Similar look in a lot of AI stocks. It may fade again like 4 weeks ago but this time is coming after its traded its tightest range in months.

INTC weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $95.80; weekly move +7.1%; 2.5% below Trend line.

SPCX

GPU Neoclouds

Last week I didn't pull the trigger even though its 140 pivot which was resistance flipped to support. I'm watching the rising 4-week now for an opportunity to get involved.

SPCX weekly chart for GPU Neoclouds. Latest close $147.95; weekly move +4.6%.

SHOP

Industry-Specific Operations

Currently basing, big lower wick last week and close back within the base looks shakeout ish. Interested in as long as hold above 144 pivot

SHOP weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $145.09; weekly move -5.1%; 0.7% above saved level.

PLTR

AI Applications & Data Platforms

Big leader consolidating under all time highs after a big move. Ideally tightens up a bit offers spot to manage risk.

PLTR weekly chart for AI Applications & Data Platforms. Latest close $174.33; weekly move -6.4%.

XYZ

Consumer Fintech & Payments

This thing trades real difficult but its nearing its major 5 year pivot to start a potential fresh stage 2 uptrend. Also beneficiary of crypto theme.

XYZ weekly chart for Consumer Fintech & Payments. Latest close $82.76; weekly move -1.0%.

Charts by theme

Themes sorted by number of setups

Optical & Photonics

LITE

Since pushing above all moving averages and its consolidation pivot it has been supported by prior resistance. Looks like subtle change in character before next leg higher

LITE weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $881.26; weekly move -1.5%.

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

MXL

Supported by 30-week so far and approaching declining MAs and down trend line. Looks good just remember this trades wide spread.

MXL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $62.74; weekly move +1.6%.

MRVL

Higher low and trading fairly tight. Definitive push above this 4-week range would likely start next leg higher.

MRVL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $223.55; weekly move +3.2%.

ALAB

Failure to make a new low now approaching down-trend line and 10-week. Close above is a big change in character.

ALAB weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $310.40; weekly move +7.2%.

SMTC

Not as tight of a recent area as other names but new weekly closing high out of its recent consolidation area. Supported by 30-week and higher low as well. Interested in 145 acting as support

SMTC weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $147.89; weekly move +12.7%; 2.0% above saved level.

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

HPE

This became a bit wide & loose but big lower wick last week looks like shakeout and supported at prior resistance.

HPE weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $52.00; weekly move -0.6%.

SNX

Trading very tight and controlled while 10 & 4 week converge underneath it.

SNX weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $262.64; weekly move +3.4%; 2.6% above saved level.

DELL

One of the best charts RS near highs while the market corrected. New closing high last week and I didn't notice until now the last 4 weeks lows have been its prior pivot. If the market cooperates DELL looks like a beach ball under water and we will see why it never broke down when everything else did.

DELL weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $524.14; weekly move +14.9%.

AI Compute & Accelerators

AMD

This was looking like one of the clearest tops in semiconductors. If semis follow through this could develop into a strong trend because sellers basically had every opportunity to break it down and couldnt

AMD weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $477.57; weekly move +2.6%.

ARM

So far supported by the 30-week and trading relatively tighter the past two weeks as it is approaching the 10-week & declining trend line. Similar look for the rest of the AI stocks.

ARM weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $252.09; weekly move +5.5%.

NVDA

NVIDIA with a new weekly closing high after a 3 week consolidation. Follow-through would be really good for semiconductors and the market.

NVDA weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $230.36; weekly move +5.9%; 1.9% above saved level.

CBRS

This trades very difficult but looks like one big IPO uturn setting up. Its in the compute specific theme within the AI group which has been notably stronger than the rest.

CBRS weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $210.05; weekly move +17.3%; 2.0% below saved level.

Hyperscaler AI Capex

AMZN

Same thoughts as GOOGL not cleanest traders but both respecting structure. AMZN 3 weeks tight above its prior pivot.

AMZN weekly chart for Hyperscaler AI Capex. Latest close $258.51; weekly move -3.0%; 0.0% below saved level.

GOOGL

Failed to break lower so far and holding its prior pivot (for dear life). All moving averages converging at the pivot with price.

GOOGL weekly chart for Hyperscaler AI Capex. Latest close $338.46; weekly move -2.3%; 0.3% above saved level.

ORCL

Not my favorite chart over the past few months but August built a clear tight range it pushed above last week. Follow through above the 30-week would be notable.

ORCL weekly chart for Hyperscaler AI Capex. Latest close $158.78; weekly move +5.3%.

Software

Collaboration & Content Workflow

DBX

Its sitting above a major 4 year resistance and now consolidating. Keeping an eye on it as it consolidates for entry or retest of 33 pivot.

DBX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $34.83; weekly move -2.4%.

BOX

Watching any pullback to rising 4-week or 33 pivot for successful retest

BOX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $35.19; weekly move +0.6%.

Workforce & Payroll

WDAY

Another big software leader that rode the 4-week now likely consolidating before next move higher

WDAY weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $195.79; weekly move -4.4%.

PCTY

Watching this as it bases. Basing near highs of a big move is always a sign of strength

PCTY weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $152.25; weekly move -3.6%; 1.3% above saved level.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

SNOW

Dont love the action last week it was very tight but still sitting at its pivot in this range and is a software leader.

SNOW weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $337.18; weekly move +2.8%; 1.9% above saved level.

Cloud Communications

FIVN

Still basing tight near highs sign of strength

FIVN weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $33.27; weekly move -2.3%; 2.1% below saved level.

TWLO

So far resistance - support flip consolidating near highs

TWLO weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $232.98; weekly move -2.0%.

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

SITM

30-week support and higher low

SITM weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $612.09; weekly move +9.7%.

Semicap Equipment

ASML

30-week support and higher low.

ASML weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $1714.88; weekly move +1.1%.

LRCX

30-week support and higher low.

LRCX weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $307.65; weekly move +1.9%.

KLAC

Not my favorite setup below 30-week and looks weak vs the rest but worth watching. Has same downtrend line look and besides the 2 weeks that failed it has respected the 4-week as resistance since June so push above both would be significant

KLAC weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $185.60; weekly move +5.7%; 2.9% below Trend line.

Test & Packaging

TER

30-week support, higher low, and still within big base

TER weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $357.03; weekly move +0.6%.

ASX

Tight tight tight

ASX weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $37.51; weekly move -0.7%.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSEM

Supported by 30-week, higher low, tight 2 recent weeks. Push out of this recent tight spot would get it above all key MAs and maybe out of its base.

TSEM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Latest close $222.34; weekly move +6.9%.

Healthcare & Biotech

Large-Cap Pharma

MRK

Tight range near highs into the 4-week looks very constructive.

MRK weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $150.33; weekly move +1.3%; 1.4% below saved level.

JNJ

Broke out of base and trading above

JNJ weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $275.23; weekly move +2.7%.

GILD

Strong action nothing to do here if not involved now ideally it trends 4-week. Included this because of the downtrend line break in June I originally discussed.... looks similar to many of semis now.

GILD weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $151.00; weekly move +3.7%.

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

NTRA

Push higher - tight range - push higher. 3 weeks tight sitting on its previous pivot.

NTRA weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $328.18; weekly move +0.6%; 2.2% above saved level.

GH

Still basing underneath multimonth pivot

GH weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $161.41; weekly move -0.1%.

Materials, Energy & Industrials

Precious Metals

PAAS

Tight range

PAAS weekly chart for Precious Metals. Latest close $51.34; weekly move -2.9%; 0.2% above saved level.

NEM

Failed to hold above its base pivot and confirm resistance - support flip but sitting constructively under it worth watching still

NEM weekly chart for Precious Metals. Latest close $128.09; weekly move +0.1%; 1.1% below saved level.

WPM

Trading sideways holding most of its recent move under its base pivot. It faded at its pivot 2 weeks ago so it matters and getting through would be notable

WPM weekly chart for Precious Metals. Latest close $154.98; weekly move +1.1%.

HL

Trading near highs of its recent move for now while many other metal and miners faded.

HL weekly chart for Precious Metals. Latest close $20.68; weekly move +1.5%; 0.5% below saved level.

Memory & Storage

Storage Systems & Components

WDC

Relatively weakest in memory but failed to make a new low and supported by the 30-week. Its range tightened the last 2 weeks, it looks constructive well see if it pushes above its downtrend line and moving averages.

WDC weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $467.46; weekly move +1.7%.

SIMO

Subtle higher low and consolidation. A break above 269 pivot & 10-week would be change in character

SIMO weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $256.21; weekly move +4.2%.

Memory Producers

MU

Higher low, new weekly closing high from its basing area and above all key MAs. Interested in retest of 970 pivot or $1000. Ideally sees follow-through this week.

MU weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1016.59; weekly move +9.0%.

SNDK

Looks like first to lead memory and AI stocks higher again? Push higher 4-weeks ago was followed by a tight range that pushed higher last week. Tight action + holding moves is what we want to see more of. Ideally sees follow-through this week.

SNDK weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1740.00; weekly move +17.2%.

Cybersecurity

ALRM

5 weeks basing near highs so far clear ~58 resistance for it to get above

ALRM weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $56.48; weekly move -1.7%; 2.0% below saved level.

OKTA

Broke out of its base on earnings in a big way and made a new closing high last week. Looks strong. Watching 4-week as it catches up

OKTA weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $170.60; weekly move +2.6%.

Financials & Fintech

Trading & Digital Asset Platforms

HOOD

Strong breakout closing near high of week.... crypto is very favored right now and HOOD is positioned to benefit big. Watching for retest of pivot or 4-week moving average.

HOOD weekly chart for Trading & Digital Asset Platforms. Latest close $122.11; weekly move +17.1%.

Robotics & Autonomy

Robotics & Industrial Automation

ZBRA

Constructive holding near highs of a big recent move. 376 pivot.

ZBRA weekly chart for Robotics & Industrial Automation. Latest close $362.74; weekly move +1.8%.

TSLA

Everybody knows my love for TSLA. Hard to trade, only stock I own long-term. My thesis has been whenever it breaks above this major 5 year range it could be massive similar to 2020. Thats its personality. Worth keeping an eye on.

TSLA weekly chart for Robotics & Industrial Automation. Latest close $354.08; weekly move +1.5%.

When the envirnment is good it shouldnt feel like a battle everyday. If this week nothing changes, step back dont force. If it improves we will feel it, new trades will work, wind should start to feel behind our back.

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