C'mon do something

Nick SchmidtSep 13, 2026

Market traction

Beta

21 / 100 42 last report

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

It keeps feeling like by the end of the week we'll get clarity and make a directional move, and we haven't yet, but the market in general has been trading in a tighter range the past three weeks, which makes me still believe that whether up or down we are going to see a direction soon.

Coming into this week, the main chart I was focused on for guiding what the next direction is was semiconductors SMH. And last week we lacked follow-through in the group, especially memory, but semis did make their first close above the 10-week and did stay strong when they had a chance to fail again and pull back. So as of right now, the semiconductor action keeps me optimistic.

SMH · Weekly chart

The environment right now is very difficult, choppy, no trend. Even though there are some constructive signs being patient until that changes is important because until then it will remain an environment that takes your money.

What would confirm the subtle strength we're seeing in the market and semis particularly would be a broad risk on day where we see growth groups together have big decisive moves. Semis, software, the market just sees broad breadth thrust action which basically signals that risk is back on in the market and can ignite a new trend. A powerful follow-through type day would separate the easy market from the difficult one we've been in.

This post from early April shows what we want to see. Weekly charts powerfully breaking out together from constructive bases.

Its worth noting that a lot of the semiconductor stocks are currently building long constructive bases. The type that if we see broad follow-through action higher could lead a new uptrend, similar to April.

Plan

Continue being patient and having high cash until we see the follow-through action we are looking for. I am interested in getting in low risk spots in some of the focus names ahead of any follow-through to get feedback, but I will not add heavy exposure or press the gas until new buys actually work and the environment shifts.

Focus

Now sitting above all key moving averages and down trend line. May be able to use $100 pivot last weeks low to manage risk against

Was looking like a rounded top that failed to breakdown and now is one of the best charts in the market. A close above 555 pivot would trigger a new trend.

Don't love the wide & loose action but may offer way to get in if it tightens up. Original 155 pivot on watch for support if weakness kicks in but ideally it holds last weeks lows and tightens in this range.

Across the themes

AI Infrastructure

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: +1.1%

Higher low so far, weak close last week but worth watching. Close above that lower pivot where it faded last week would be sign of strength

Failed to follow through out of its consolidation last week but still RS in the group. Consolidating above its previous resistance.

Higher low, not the most RS but structure nonetheless. Watch for it to be coming up the right side of its base

Possibly coming up the right side of its base looks constructive. Closed above all moving averages and against its downtrend line

Inside week after a higher low. Sitting at declining 10-week and down trend line.

This ended up having a good week. Sitting at resistance area in its 4 week range. Close above should trigger momentum if the group participates.

Closed at its original base pivot. Does it find resistance, pull back and make a higher low?

Both this and HPE have huge shakeout wicks from 2 weeks ago then followed through to the upside. These shakeouts make me think if the market follows through these will rally big

Overall not the easiest personality of a stock but has a clean 4 week range here and closed sitting on its 40 pivot.

First decisive looking close out of its 2 month tight base

30-week support and higher low as it approaches its 10-week and declining trend line.

Just like HPE this was one of the strongest charts near highs when everything else corrected and now breakout to new highs. Why tracking RS is so useful

First breakout in June failed to get traction and ended back in its base. Its now hitting its base pivot attempting a second breakout attempt.

One of the strongest stocks near highs while everything corrected, now new weekly closing high. This is why we track RS during weakness although this traded a little messy with the market.

Broke above its downtrend line and sitting on top of its moving averages now. Id prefer to get in on another similar quiet sideways week if looking to get involved.

Now sitting above all key moving averages and down trend line. May be able to use $100 pivot last weeks low to manage risk against

Was looking like a rounded top that failed to breakdown and now is one of the best charts in the market. A close above 555 pivot would trigger a new trend.

Not my favorite chart but fairly tight ranges and still supported at its pivot.

This ended up pulling back and being supported by the 4-week. Broke above 140 pivot and now trending the 4-week

Semiconductors

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: +0.8%

Higher low last week now closed near high of week outside of its tight range past 2 weeks.

30-week support so far coming into its declining trend line and 10-week. Close above with semi participation would gain momentum

30-week support and higher low in a 5 month base

ASML is so far base building and looks great if Semis are going to move. Currently we have a higher low within the base, so watching next week to see how it acts. Do we put in another higher level? It's showing signs it's coming up the right side.

Still within a giant base doing nothing wrong, when this does break out above its 420 pivot it should start a new trend. However I'd like to use a higher low in the base to get in earlier.

3 weeks tight now. Push out of this recent tight spot would get it above all key MAs.

Memory & Storage

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -0.4%

Broke above the 269 pivot highlighted last week looks among the strongest in group. On weakness I'd watch for retest of 269 to confirm resistance - support,

Higher low so far in its base. Faded at its previous resistance again last week so a close above this time with group support would trigger momentum.

Weakest of memory but now 3 weeks tight supported by the 30-week up against 10/30-week MAs and down trend line

Pulled back to MU's previous resistance. On watch for resistance - support flip. Sitting above all team of energy.

Pulled back to near its previous resistance. Possible resistance - support flip to watch. Above all key MAs

Robotics & Autonomy

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -1.3%

Just keeping this 5 year base in view. Whenever/ifever it breaks out I think it will be powerful

Second week with a big lower wick. Watching for higher low

Materials, Energy & Industrials

Im not interested in this group really, ideally we see growth start working but some constructive charts worth keeping an eye on.

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -2.3%

Inside week consolidating constructively still after a big move.

3 weeks tight after its recent big move higher. Constructive

Inside week looking constructive under its base pivot

Still worth watching this retest. Does breakout fail or does resistance -> support confirm?

Software

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -2.4%

2 weeks fairly tight sitting on the 10-week. Another week in this range would be ideal, close above ~189.50 area pivot would likely trigger momentum

Pulling back to its prior pivot. Watch for resistance -> support flip

Still one of my favorite software charts. Basing for weeks on top of a multi-year resistance.

Continues to trade tight near highs... software leader to keep an eye on

One of the strongest software names finally had an inside week. Ideally can get another week sideways and that can be enough basing to get involved

Trading in a fairly tight range still holding its previous resistance near highs. Resistance -> support flip still

Strong action off the 30-week. Higher low that cleared its consolidation pivot.

Healthcare & Biotech

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -3.0%

Not the easiest personality either but multi-month base at highs is constructive

Not the easiest personality but still building an organized base near highs.

One of the cleanest charts out there. 3 weeks tight at highs.

Financials & Fintech

Past four weeks

Last week vs QQQ: -3.7%

This is trading pretty sloppy and its within its personality. Zoomed out the move to a new uptrend above its multi-year base pivot ~87 will likely be powerful.

Dont love lack of follow-through but thats the environment. So far sitting at its prior pivot and 4-week. If these hold it could be good spot to get involved.

Market traction

Overview

Plan

Focus

Across the themes

AI Infrastructure

Optical & Photonics

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

AI Compute & Accelerators

Hyperscaler AI Capex

GPU Neoclouds

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

Semicap Equipment

Test & Packaging

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

Memory & Storage

Storage Systems & Components

Memory Producers

Robotics & Autonomy

Robotics & Industrial Automation

Materials, Energy & Industrials

Precious Metals

Copper

Software

Collaboration & Content Workflow

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

Cloud Communications

AI Applications & Data Platforms

Healthcare & Biotech

Large-Cap Pharma

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

Financials & Fintech

Consumer Fintech & Payments

Trading & Digital Asset Platforms