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As long as leaders lead

Big picture

Breadth is still poor, oil and rates are still moving higher, and it remains a difficult market to make progress in. With that being said growth stocks look and are acting better than they have in months and I continue to get traction.

The question has been whether the rest of the market would follow the growth stocks higher or they eventually crack with everything else. Last week the leaders we've been focused on gave me more reason to stay with them. Semis followed through for a third week, and across growth I'm seeing more setups and tighter, more organized charts than I have in a long time.

In earlier attempts to resume the uptrend I would put on exposure but there wasn't a large amount of really high quality setups. Now there is much more structure to work with and I'm finding more setups than I have in months even though the broader market still looks poor.

William O'Neil taught us to watch the leaders and so thats what we must do. Growth is acting well in an environment where a lot isn't, and it's the part of the market that CAN lead a new uptrend.

Excerpt from How To Make Money in Stocks

What I want to see

  • Semis keep leading and follow through.
  • Software start participating together with semis.
  • Breakouts from multi-month bases hold and follow through.

As participation broadens the environment should feel easier.

Third week of follow-through. Semis are the strongest group right now and have the most setups. This is a major change in character from the summer. I want to see them keep leading while the rest of growth follows. Continues to be my top focus.

SMH weekly chart for Semiconductors. Latest close $630.60; weekly move +4.0%.

SMH · Weekly chart

Software held its pivot and has spent the past few weeks consolidating. That consolidating now makes any follow through more appealing in the group. Basing supports big moves.

IGV weekly chart for Software. Latest close $108.43; weekly move +2.3%.

IGV · Weekly chart

Plan

Let positions work

Im focused on positioning for follow through not trying to lock in any unrealized gains I have here yet. I will keep using the cushion I have to let them work.

Add new exposure only on weakness or quiet areas

The market intraday has continued to be choppy and even though we have started to see strength follow through by end of week, buying strength is still very tough to do. New entries until that change will continue to be what I've been doing. Buying near pivots on weakness or in quiet ranges and try to get cushion by close.

Keep focused on the leaders

Theres a lot of mixed signals so I'm continuing to tune everything out except how the leading stocks I'm watching from the report are acting.

Current holdings

50% invested · 50% cash

StockPortfolio %
MU10%
ASML10%
PLTR10%
AMD10%
ALAB10%

MU

10%
Picked some back up after earnings, still trading tight but with little cushion. I want to see it push out of this range and then can ideally trend the 4-week

ASML

10%
Its now approaching its major base pivot and looks constructive. I expect it will pull back make another higher low before breaking out, but the sooner it breaks out the faster I can move stops up under the pivot and let the 4-week cross above

PLTR

10%
Acting well but want to see it hold last weeks range and ideally break through the major 200 pivot to move stops up.

AMD

10%
Holding this as tight as possible. Biggest leader at the moment. In a perfect world I can let it trend the 4-week.

ALAB

10%
Trades a bit wild and I dont have cushion yet. The sooner it gets through 365 I can move my stops up.

Focus list

FLEX

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

Trading very tight up against its short term consolidation pivot. Through down trendline and all moving averages bunched up.

FLEX weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $116.61; weekly move +1.7%; 0.5% below saved level.

INTC

AI Compute & Accelerators

Inside week and supported by 4-week right under its major pivot.

INTC weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $119.33; weekly move -3.0%.

AMD

AI Compute & Accelerators

The liquid semi leader. Any pullbacks to the 4 week or another inside week this should deserve a spot in your portfolio I believe

AMD weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $633.91; weekly move +0.5%.

TEAM

Collaboration & Content Workflow

5 weeks tight near highs now and last week has a shakeout looking wick which makes me more interested if it is ready to breakout

TEAM weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $187.89; weekly move +0.1%; 0.8% below saved level.

DOCN

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

2 nearly identical closes.. trading fairly tight on its pivot. One of my top software watches this week.

DOCN weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $140.07; weekly move +0.2%; 2.1% above saved level.

PLTR

AI Applications & Data Platforms

Continues to act fine and off most radar at it quietly approaches a major pivot. If it trades tight again in this range this week it would offer spot to get involved if not already

PLTR weekly chart for AI Applications & Data Platforms. Latest close $188.75; weekly move -0.5%.

TER

Test & Packaging

Breakout of a multi-month base and closed at highs of the week. I am watching this next week for a retest or inside week to get involved.

TER weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $449.04; weekly move +12.7%.

Charts by theme

Themes sorted by number of setups

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

DELL

Looks like DELL reclaimed the 4-week by a hair but it has now failed to make a new high for 4 weeks. Maybe it needs to rest... the ~570 pivot gives a good spot to see if its pushes out of this range and resumes higher

DELL weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $562.52; weekly move -0.1%; 1.2% below saved level.

SMCI

2nd week after breaking above its resistance area that it has used it as support. Id want this to trend the 4-week on a closing basis.

SMCI weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $43.69; weekly move +1.0%.

HPE

Choppy action after the original base breakout but now trending the 4-week again which I would be using if still in

HPE weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $69.33; weekly move +10.2%.

Optical & Photonics

GLW

Not the cleanest chart at the moment but fairly tight the past 8 weeks finding resistance at the ~171 pivot. A close above would be notable and group is strong.

GLW weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $164.19; weekly move +4.8%.

AXTI

Subtle resistance to support the past 2 weeks as it approaches its ~90 pivot.

AXTI weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $85.87; weekly move +8.8%.

COHR

Groups strong and this had a bullish engulfing outside week, reclaimed all MAs as it approaches its first pivot.

COHR weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $337.04; weekly move +13.9%; 2.5% below saved level.

LITE

After weeks of consolidating above its prior consolidation pivot LITE broke out of a multi-month base closing at highs. If long I'd want to see it trend the 4-week. If looking to get long Id only consider on an inside week or retest ~1000 level

LITE weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $1085.42; weekly move +15.3%.

VIAV

Above its recent consolidation pivot and closed high of week. Group heating up last week. If not long already Im not chasing would be interested on an inside week or retest of ~44 pivot.

VIAV weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $47.10; weekly move +15.8%.

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

MRVL

New weekly closing high since basing and above its first pivot. 4-week catching up. Ideally it stays above 265 pivot and breakout stays intact

MRVL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $272.29; weekly move +4.0%; 2.8% above saved level.

SMTC

Breakout to new highs the resistance -> support flip past 2 weeks. Now ideally trends the 4-week on a closing basis.

SMTC weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $194.88; weekly move +6.9%.

MXL

Through downtrend line and through its base pivot in 3 weeks. Major pivot is also 100 a livermore psychological level. If i was long and it follows through I want it to hold 4-week on a closing basis. If looking to get in I'm watching 100 level this week

MXL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $105.93; weekly move +12.9%.

GPU Neoclouds

SPCX

Another name I fumble executing every time but continues to act great. Last week completely engulfed the prior week and 3 week range.

SPCX weekly chart for GPU Neoclouds. Latest close $158.96; weekly move +6.9%.

Collaboration & Content Workflow

DBX

Similar to BOX its first loss of its major pivot was defended. Thats constructive and I'm interested in this again ~33 pivot. This is a 5 year resistance level so its meaningful if it holds above.

DBX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $33.90; weekly move +4.9%; 2.8% above saved level.

BOX

It broke its pivot and was immediately bought up aggressively. Its candle completely engulfed the prior week. Looks like it was defended strong and worth keeping an eye around its pivot

BOX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $34.49; weekly move +9.9%.

Industry-Specific Operations

VEEV

Failed to follow through now back in its range. See how it acts next week if it needs more time or gets back above its pivot

VEEV weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $273.33; weekly move -2.6%; 1.1% below saved level.

SHOP

I took this off my radar after the week it broke down from its base area, now its back in. Looks sloppier now but interested around the 145 & 155 pivots.

SHOP weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $151.39; weekly move +6.4%; 1.7% below saved level.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

SNOW

Continues to trade tight near highs around its pivot. Looks like last week opened near lows and closed near highs engulfing the prior week. Looks like it could be nearing a move

SNOW weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $341.04; weekly move +1.5%.

DDOG

New weekly closing high. Last week opened near the pivot and inside which was the best spot. Monitoring now

DDOG weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $277.22; weekly move +3.4%.

GTLB

4 weeks tight near highs. Last week completely engulfed the prior week. One of the best looking software

GTLB weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $49.78; weekly move +6.3%; 0.5% below saved level.

Cloud Communications

FIVN

Lack of follow through but ended the week above its pivot. Watch for it to be a successful retest

FIVN weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $34.36; weekly move -3.9%; 1.1% above saved level.

BAND

Keeping an eye on it as it works on the right side here under its major ~72 pivot.

BAND weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $63.74; weekly move +3.1%.

TWLO

Nothing to do now if not involved yet, if I was long I'd use the 4-week on a closing basis now that the trend has picked up.

TWLO weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $294.58; weekly move +6.8%.

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

TXN

Clean follow through closing high of week after a tight range. Now above all key MAs and 4 week turning up fast. Can only get involved at this point on an inside week

TXN weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $293.80; weekly move +5.7%.

STM

Above key MAs and coming up the right side. Consolidation pivot is ~56 and moving averages are bunching around that area too

STM weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $57.26; weekly move +10.3%; 2.2% above saved level.

MTSI

Big push up as we've been seeing no need to chase. Watch for potential inside week to get involved.

MTSI weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $321.60; weekly move +12.6%.

Semicap Equipment

KLAC

Same look as ALAB AMAT. Above key MAs and downtrend line. Watch for potential inside week to get involved.

KLAC weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $206.89; weekly move +10.1%.

LRCX

Another strong looking semi coming up the right side. Inside week or test its ~330 pivot to get involved

LRCX weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $347.49; weekly move +10.2%.

AMAT

Looks like ALAB 2 weeks ago. Above key MAs and strong week. An inside week similar to many semis had last week can offer a good spot without chasing

AMAT weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $540.04; weekly move +11.3%.

Test & Packaging

ASX

Retest followed by new highs. Ideally if strong it now trails the 4-week, its what I would use if long

ASX weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $47.45; weekly move +7.1%.

FORM

Approaching its base pivot on breakout watch

FORM weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $149.15; weekly move +15.0%.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSM

Breakout and new weekly closing high. Id use the 4 week to manage an existing position or inside week to get long

TSM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Latest close $472.78; weekly move +4.9%; 2.2% above saved level.

TSEM

Multi-month base coming up the right side. Last 2 weeks has been supported where it found resistance for 4 weeks. I like the r/r closer to this 2 week range if it offers again before the official breakout

TSEM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Latest close $240.86; weekly move +4.5%.

Memory & Storage

Storage Systems & Components

STX

This got hit Friday on Toshiba news but on the weekly nothing has changed yet. Same level is resistance and it continues to base. I'm thinking the weakness here is likely more of an opportunity

STX weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $848.99; weekly move -7.4%.

SIMO

Trading tight this SNDK and MU all look like they will make a move soon.

SIMO weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $280.50; weekly move +1.5%.

Memory Producers

SNDK

Still trading fairly tight. Holding last weeks low will make me think its ready to breakout soon, if it loses it then may need more time.

SNDK weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1719.99; weekly move -3.3%.

SKHY

Resistance to support flip and strong week vs the rest of memory

SKHY weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $195.13; weekly move +1.9%.

Healthcare & Biotech

Large-Cap Pharma

MRK

Continues to base in this range as long as the lower pivot and now 10-week hold may be good weakness opportunity.

MRK weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $144.30; weekly move -3.0%; 0.5% above saved level.

ABBV

3 weeks tight near highs above pivot

ABBV weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $262.82; weekly move -0.6%; 0.7% above saved level.

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

GH

Fairly tight the past 2 weeks still above its pivot as the 4-week catches up. Its breakout here is still intact

GH weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $177.80; weekly move +0.3%.

Cybersecurity

TENB

This trades pretty wide but in a strong group working on a multi-month base. Close over 40 puts it into an official breakout

TENB weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $36.85; weekly move +10.0%.

ZS

ZS so far successful retest as the 4-week caught up. Worth monitoring this 3 week range to get involved

ZS weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $196.60; weekly move +1.8%.

So far we've continued to see stocks that look like they breakout and got away come back and retest or trade tight offering spots to get involved. There continues to be no rush... have to have patience and wait for A+ spots. If they get away they have been coming back.

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