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SMH Stock Analysis Across Reports | Nick Schmidt

SMH$606.56

This move in semis is a change in character. First time since the top a strong week was immediately followed up by another strong week. Ideally they are making the first move and the rest of the market follows.

From Leaders moving first?Sep 27, 2026

SMH analysis across reports

Apr 12, 2026 — Sep 27, 2026

14 of 14

Apr 12, 2026$436.88
The whole AI stack is moving
SMH weekly chart for Overview. Latest close $436.88; weekly move +11.4%.
Apr 19, 2026$464.16
The AI Repricing
May 10, 2026$566.54
Party like its 1999?
The theme since this rally started has been Semiconductors. Semis have moved +45% in 5 weeks. This is the strongest group by far however it is currently the most extended it has EVER been in history. The best thing would be it consolidates and rests for a few weeks. This group has showed its hand as the leaders so as semis eventually digest and extended leaders offer secondary entry points, those stocks will become focus.
May 17, 2026$556.34
Pause or pullback?
Semis have been by far the strongest group the past 6 weeks. This is the best group to lead. Price action last week finally cooled off after being very extended... now watching to see do we trade tight and let MA's catch up, or do we pull back deeper to an MA. Either way this is the group to watch for either scenario as many of the leaders that went up too much will begin to offer really good secondary entry points.
May 24, 2026$576.32
Chips are in control
THE group to focus on. Historical move higher.... was barely able to pull back or rest before more buyers stepped in.
Jun 14, 2026$619.96
Feedback Invites Exposure
Semis are the most important group in this market so SMH is top focus. Its still possible that we continue to chop and base build for a little longer, but also possible we don't after the strong bounce off the 10-week and close near highs.
Jul 12, 2026$611.03
A market between moves
3 weeks basing so far.
Jul 19, 2026$556.53
Tight action or no action
Semis led
Aug 9, 2026$569.69
Strong but Different
Tight organized action into April, new highs.
Aug 23, 2026$560.42
Growth participation is narrowing
Only 13% of semis remain above the 10-week one of the weakest groups in the market. This may end up being a base before we go higher but for right now its weak and an avoid.
Aug 30, 2026$553.11
Save your swing
Another rejection at the now declining 10-week. Have to stay open minded it could be building a big base but it looks more like topping action to me especially with the action in the individual semi stocks.
Sep 6, 2026$567.01
Optimistic
This is the chart that determines the environment. Up at a decision point we failed at last time. Push and close above = market goes higher imo
Sep 13, 2026$568.53
C'mon do something
Sep 27, 2026$606.56
Leaders moving first?
This move in semis is a change in character. First time since the top a strong week was immediately followed up by another strong week. Ideally they are making the first move and the rest of the market follows.