Apr 6 – Apr 10, 2026
Level to Manage Risk > Setup
Nick SchmidtApril 11, 2026SPY+3.60%QQQ+4.46%
Two weeks ago I didn't think we were anywhere close to the lows. Then the market put in decisive weekly candles that completely broke my expectation and I had to adapt. This week confirmed it. Monday still felt heavy but the market kept ignoring bad news, Tuesday I tested NFLX on weakness, and Wednesday was a follow-through day. I have a rule that on a FTD I need to buy something regardless of what I think. AMAT and TER were both gapping up which is totally outside my comfort zone but both had logical levels to manage risk and at the end of the day that's what matters more than the setup. By Friday I'm sitting at 40% invested with early positive feedback on all three positions.
A lot of the weekly charts that closed Friday broke out to new highs with huge candles out of multi-month bases. That only makes me cautiously optimistic because we've seen breakouts fail over and over recently, but the character of this move feels different.
Current Holdings
40% invested|60% cash
SymbolAvg CostLastP&L
AMAT15%
$386.47$401.00+3.76%Avg $386.47Last $401.00
TER15%
$348.48$369.48+6.03%Avg $348.48Last $369.48
NFLX10%
$98.86$103.03+4.22%Avg $98.86Last $103.03
Went from 100% cash to 40% invested. NFLX Tuesday, AMAT and TER Wednesday. How I add and remove exposure is what I call the feedback loop.
Day by Day
Monday
2026-04-06Opened green following the weekend headlines and Thursday's action which was notable. Market felt heavy but not weak. The entries on my watchlist names weren't great risk/reward so I sat. Biggest takeaway was the market continued ignoring negative news.
- Space stocks ASTS, RKLB showing relative strength
- AAOI finding support above prior all-time high
Real-time posts from this day (2)
Tuesday
—Testing2026-04-07Weakness premarket gave the pullback opportunity I wanted. First hour action was better than expected for the magnitude of the news. AAOI still holding above prior ATH, NFLX barely budging. These two stood out. Took a small NFLX position. Market closed green on a potential nuke threat which was very notable.
- Names showing RS while market weak: AA, AAOI, CIEN, DELL, GLW, NFLX, STX, NBIS
- CRWV higher low and volume profile looks great
BoughtNFLX (~10% position)
Real-time posts from this day (2)
Wednesday
—Follow-Through2026-04-08QQQ set to open above the 30-week and 10-week which has been resistance the whole way down. This felt like a FTD so the goal was to add some exposure, not chase. Bought AMAT and TER early even though buying strength is completely outside my wheelhouse. The market gapped up 3% and didn't budge at all on a negative ceasefire headline and that tells me something.
- AAOI ATH pivot flipped from resistance to support
- AMAT VCP-style contraction gave nice base structure for breakout
BoughtAMAT (~15%), TER (~15%)
Real-time posts from this day (4)
Thursday
2026-04-09Observing and monitoring. Yesterday gapped big on bad news and didn't budge, today followed through powerfully again. Growth stocks leading and the action is very different from what we've been seeing. The names to own are sticking out like a sore thumb.
- AMAT pushed through previous all-time high
- NBIS model book base with higher lows, favorite chart out there right now
- LUNR high of week was prior ATH, watching that level
- Space stocks weak today, these are the times to get involved because they're very hard to buy on strength with all the upper wicks
- KLAC, SNDK, AMAT, GLW powerful weekly charts, different market than recent weeks
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Friday
—Holding2026-04-10Gapped up again. I prefer opening lower for opportunities but all that matters is the close. Even with 75% of stocks moving lower since the open, the names that matter held near the top of their massive weekly ranges. All three current positions impressed me under pressure.
- SMH and growth names near top of weekly range despite broad selling
- NBIS monster move, #1 focus if any retest next week
- CLS, AMZN, CRWV relentless buying, feels like a stampede
- ASML resurrected, potential new weekly closing high
Real-time posts from this day (2)
Lessons
01
Adapting fast
Two weeks ago I didn't expect we were close to the lows at all. Then we got decisive weekly candles that completely broke my expectation and I had to throw out what I thought was going to happen. I mentioned prior bottoms always had those big candles and now we have them. I'm not trying to be right about my prediction, I'm trying to react to new information as fast as I can.
02
Level to manage risk > setup
AMAT and TER were both gapping up which is not how I like to buy. But both had clear levels to manage risk, AMAT had the base pivot and TER had the daily low. I realized the setup doesn't need to be perfect if I have a logical level that tells me immediately whether it's working or not. I'd rather take an uncomfortable entry with a clear stop than wait for the perfect setup that never comes.
03
The market stopped caring about headlines
This is what started shifting my outlook last week and confirmed it this week. Monday opened green after bad weekend headlines. Tuesday closed green on a potential nuke threat. Wednesday didn't budge on a negative ceasefire headline while up 3%. I don't need to trust the headlines, I just need to trust the price action and the price action is telling me something changed.