Mar 9 – Mar 13, 2026
The Easy Part
by Nick Schmidt · March 14, 2026
For the first time in months doing nothing actually felt right. The previous two months were hard because there was always something to argue about, important growth stocks breaking down but other groups still working, never a clear risk off signal. That's what causes overtrading in choppy markets. This week QQQ closed below the 30-week for the first time and suddenly there's nothing to argue about anymore.
Fully cash by Tuesday and just waiting for a follow-through day instead of trying to manufacture trades. Closed at the lows for the week, ideally we get some real panic and a flush because that sets up a new trend faster like last April.
Current Holdings
0% invested|100% cash
SymbolAvg CostLastP&L
Cash.
Day by Day
Monday
—Bounce Into Declining 10-Week Again2026-03-09Everything pointed lower pre-market and then it bounced hard to close at the high of the day. Bounce wasn't surprising given sentiment but the strength was. Day 1 of the rally attempt, count resets if we make a new low, earliest a follow-through day can happen is Thursday.
Tuesday
—Clarity2026-03-10Stepped away Friday and Monday and it cleared my head more than expected. Went from "it feels wrong not trading" to "it feels wrong trying to trade" which is kind of the whole point. More stocks that were holding up are starting to crack. ET stops triggered, fully cash.
- NVDA 10 and 30-week MAs converging tight, marked last week's high. If they mark this week's high again that's a ceiling forming
SoldET (Stops triggered, fully cash)
Wednesday
—Almost2026-03-11TSLA started showing big volume and buyers stepping in so I tried a small position. Tossed it almost immediately, peace of mind in this market is worth more than any single trade. Came back after the close to scan and build a watchlist instead since I can't buy anything after hours and there's no temptation to do something stupid.
- Watchlist if FTD: TSLA, IDCC, WWD, MU, NBIS, AA, RKLB, first three in easier range to get involved
BoughtTSLA (Small position)
SoldTSLA (Tossed almost immediately, peace of mind worth more)
Real-time posts from this day (8)
Day 3: FTD can happen tomorrow, CNN extreme fearTSLA big volume, change of characterTSLA thoughts — being bought up below pivotTossed TSLA, not worth the peace of mindSpace showing RS, RKLB stands outWatchlist if FTD: TSLA, IDCC, WWD, MU, NBIS, AA, RKLBBest trade is still no trade until FTDStare at a chart long enough you see anything
Thursday
—Wrong Direction2026-03-12Earliest a FTD could happen and it didn't. Qualitative factors weren't there, no breadth, no leadership springing up like April last year. More selling would be welcome because it gets us to a tradable trend faster.
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Friday
—Easy Part2026-03-13Ugly close and I'm fine with that, more selling gets us back to something tradable quicker.
- No real panic yet. In previous corrections we've seen a big gap down with a strong reversal, buyers stepping in aggressively while the last holders finally panic out. That type of weekly candle closing near highs doesn't guarantee a bottom but it's usually a sign of capitulation. Watching for that.
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Lessons
01
When you're watching too close you see opportunities everywhere
Last week I had to physically remove myself from the screen. Came back after a few days and the shift was immediate, from wanting to trade to not wanting to trade. When you're staring at charts all day every small move looks like something and you start convincing yourself there's a trade there. Three days away and all of that went quiet.
02
A clear risk off signal makes doing nothing easy
The previous two months were hard because there was always something to argue about. Growth stocks breaking down but other groups still working, bounces that could be the start of something. Once QQQ closed below the 30-week and the follow-through day concept gave me something specific to wait for, the anxiety went away. I knew exactly what I needed to see and when it could show up. That's why this week felt so different.