Oct 6 – Oct 10, 2025
Nick SchmidtOctober 12, 2025
When you have weakness to a confluence of important technical areas it's an A+ opportunity. Pullbacks to multiple major support levels simultaneously, like the bottom of a long base and a respected moving average, make the odds much higher for it to hold.
This week was a mix of nice momentum early and a brutal Friday. Monday was one of those favorite days where things are fine and working and there isn't much to think about. BULL stopped out for +9.5%, attempted a rebuy but stopped again by close. Added MDB during a tight 3-week consolidation near highs on Wednesday, treating it as a swing rather than a core position. By Friday the momentum breadth reading was one of the most brutal I've seen in a long time, but major structure is intact which makes me believe we will not see a major crash, just a pullback before snapping back.
Reduced exposure heading into the weekend by selling the PLTR add and MDB. If things do pull back more next week in my opinion it's not a major top, it will just offer much better opportunities in names to get long. The April leaders continue to show early coordinated strength together which often signals readiness for another leg higher.
121% exposure. Reduced from higher levels Friday by selling PLTR add and MDB. Staying positioned but lighter heading into potential pullback.
Beautiful day with nice momentum after stressful prior Friday. My favorite days are when things are fine and working and there isn't much to think about. BULL stopped out for +9.5%, attempted rebuy but stopped again by close. Great action across PLTR, TSLA, RKLB. Calmer environment welcomed after previous week's stress.
Not the best close but nothing concerning. Nice action in PLTR and RKLB. TSLA closed at low of day but held $430 level, the highest volume price, providing comfort as long as closing above continues.
Strong momentum across the board. Added MDB during tight consolidation. Not much movement in TSLA or PLTR but that's fine, things don't need to move every day or week. RKLB push came with big volume, increasing likelihood the breakout sticks. My rule for holding through earnings is if I have enough of a cushion larger than the implied move.
Early strength in April leaders: PLTR, TSLA, NFLX, NVDA, RKLB all showing coordinated power. When any group of stocks show early strength together it often signals readiness for another leg higher. NFLX respecting 30-week MA providing confluence of support. Positioning ahead of what could be massive rally in these April leaders.
One of the most brutal daily readings for momentum breadth seen in a long time. Major structure is intact which makes me believe we will not see a major crash like earlier this year, but things can still pull back lower before snapping back. Reduced exposure by selling PLTR add and MDB. If things do pull back more next week in my opinion it's not a major top, it will just offer much better opportunities in names to get long.
When you have weakness to a confluence of important technical areas it's an A+ opportunity. Pullbacks to multiple major support levels simultaneously, like the bottom of a long base and a respected moving average, make the odds much higher for it to hold. NFLX at the 30-week MA while at the base bottom is a perfect example.
Step away during stressful periods when you have cushion in positions and stops set on new names. If your rule is to wait until the close on names with cushion then it helps reduce emotional decision making. Don't watch every tick when the outcome won't change your actions.
My rule for holding through earnings is if I have enough of a cushion. If the cushion is larger than the implied earnings move, hold. I find the implied move on OptionSlam.com. Also consider qualitative factors like recent earnings reactions across the sector. May lighten up slightly if needed but cushion is the primary decision factor.
When any group of stocks show early strength together it often signals readiness for another leg higher. I consider April leaders to be a group in a similar way. My goal is to position in these leaders while they are completing their multi-month bases. PLTR, TSLA, NFLX, NVDA, RKLB all showing coordinated power Thursday.