Sep 22 – Sep 26, 2025
Nick SchmidtSeptember 28, 2025
When you sell into weakness and focus on improving your worst case scenario you start to prefer stocks move up slower than faster. The day to day to me is mostly irrelevant.
This was a volatile week that felt busy and stressful in real-time but the weekly charts tell a different story, not much actually happened. Most leaders had inside weeks. The volatility created a few good opportunities though. Started a position in SPOT on weakness as price contracted in its base, it's an April leader with a tighter chart and smaller ranges than RKLB which makes it a type of trade I would take 100 times over. Fully exited RKLB by Friday to simplify the portfolio, it was becoming a headache despite the strong Space theme.
One of the bigger themes this week was managing focus. I like to hold no more than 5 stocks at once. When it becomes more than that my attention becomes spread and I don't make the best decisions. Also realized that 3 weeks sideways always turns any extended name into something compelling, that's the setup criteria going forward for names that have already run.
138% exposure. Added SPOT, exited RKLB to simplify. PLTR handle forming nicely for potential add next week.
Strong close across the market. Many names extended but liquid leaders about to move out of long bases. NVDA attempting official breakout. Three weeks sideways always turns any extended name into something compelling, that's the setup criteria for names like RDDT.
Slow day with Powell speaking at 12:35pm causing market hesitation. Small caps doing best. April leaders mostly lower but quietly inside bases. Feels so far like a day that makes you want to do something out of boredom. RKLB up 7% attempting base breakout but until it breaks out expecting it to fade as usual.
First volatile action in weeks with pressure across all names in morning. Started SPOT position on weakness. Most stocks that took a hit today are still structurally fine, bases are intact. RKLB seeing pressure as expected given its personality. When the market gets volatile like today I intentionally try to minimize screen time to avoid making rash decisions.
Gap down open turning into wild volatility. Reduced RKLB position size due to no cushion and high ADR. When a stock does take out the lows in the morning and does flush, it increases likelihood of a push into the close.
Volatile action again but mostly seems like digestion. Lots of leaders with inside weeks. Fully exited RKLB because of ugly close. Still think it's fine but wanted to start with a clean slate. PLTR with perfect end to the week, handle forming sets us up for a potential add next week. Weekly charts show not much happened despite the market this week feeling busy and stressful.
3 weeks sideways always turns any setup into something compelling. If a name is extended but digests sideways for three weeks it provides good risk/reward. That's the criteria for names like RDDT that have already run but could become a priority with some digestion.
When the market gets volatile like today I intentionally try to minimize screen time to avoid making rash decisions. Days with high volatility are best handled by stepping away rather than watching every tick. The impulse to act is strongest exactly when acting is least productive.
When a stock does take out the lows in the morning and does flush, it increases likelihood of a push into the close. A fade after a morning bounce that heads near lows is almost always going to take out the morning lows. But if those lows get flushed, the buyers who stepped in tend to push into the close.
If the original market leaders begin to falter, and lower-priced, lower-quality, more-speculative stocks begin to move up, watch out. Tracking the original April leaders for cycle health. HOOD, MSTR, META, SPOT, PLTR and the rest are the guide for whether this market is healthy or not.
I like to hold no more than 5 stocks at once. When it becomes more than that my attention becomes spread and I don't make the best decisions. Exiting RKLB this week was partly about simplifying and getting back to focused positions where I can give each one full attention.