Aug 11 – Aug 15, 2025
Nick SchmidtAugust 16, 2025SPY+0.98%QQQ+0.49%
For the first time in a month I feel like I'm positioned well. Three names, nearly fully invested, concentrated into mega caps. The shift to focusing on $100B+ names came from watching smaller caps whip around with no follow-through and realizing I was spreading myself too thin trying to catch moves in names that weren't ready.
TSLA is the number one focus at 55% of the portfolio. It's been contracting for months and offering low-risk entries, and I think this could be an early entry into a multi-year base breakout. META finally followed through after weeks of patience and HOOD closed above its $110 pivot. Slow chop environment but the core positions held up well through every gap down and every fade.
Sold SMCI Monday morning, a leftover position from the prior week that I thought had already been stopped out. Now it's clean, three names, all working.
Sold SMCI Monday. Three concentrated mega cap positions, nearly fully invested.
Gap up that faded but the close wasn't as concerning as previous Monday gaps. TSLA was the biggest mover from the leader list. Don't chase anything the first 30 minutes from FOMO unless it was planned. Cleaned up the SMCI position that I thought had been stopped out last week but actually hadn't triggered.
Another gap up opening. META finally followed through after weeks of waiting and TSLA showed good shakeout action with a higher close. The patience on META is starting to pay off.
Gap down and that's the setup I prefer. Early strength held and most names got bought off the open. Several watchlist names sitting perfectly on the 10-week. Two closes below the 10-week is my sell signal, that's the exit criteria.
Strong close across all positions. TSLA defended $330 again, HOOD closed above the $110 pivot, and META hit a new closing high. Good reason to go down that was shrugged off pretty well. Character change setups showing up in solar with SEDG up 25% after sitting on the 10-week.
Strong day for the solar group. Momentum started declining across the broader market but core positions held strong. Slow chop environment overall but the three names I'm in all closed the week well. Based on this week's close TSLA may head back to the $310-320 area before it sticks higher, and that would be another opportunity to add.
I spent the last month spread across too many names and watching smaller caps whip around with no follow-through. The shift to focusing on $100B+ mega caps until the smaller names settle down made everything cleaner. Fewer positions, more conviction, less noise. For the first time in a month I feel positioned well and I think that's because I stopped trying to be in everything.
TSLA had been contracting for months, each week tighter than the last, and that's exactly the kind of base structure that offers defined risk. Every pullback within the contraction gave a chance to add with tight stops because the range was getting narrower and the support levels were obvious. The worst case at any point was getting stopped even, not catastrophic loss. That's what makes contraction patterns so useful, the risk shrinks as the base matures.
I keep noticing this pattern and it keeps proving true. Gap ups typically fade into the close because everyone chases in the first 30 minutes from FOMO. Gap downs are the opposite, they get bought because the weak hands already sold and the people who want in get a better price. This week the gap down on Wednesday got bought immediately and set up the strongest close of the week. I'd rather wake up to a gap down than a gap up every time.