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surviving report feature

Surviving

Big picture

This market remains very tough for me and for many other top traders I look up to as well. Indexes are at all time highs and looking at the weekly charts of some stocks I've been trading half successfully it makes it worse because it doesn't look like the market would be hard.

Breadth has continued to be bad and really a small percentage of stocks are seeing strength but even in similar previous markets these bad breadth scenarios usually aren't as difficult for me.

I ended this week all cash but most of my stocks I bought early for the most part acted fine over the past few weeks. Any new trades I tried last week I had negative feedback and couldn't get any traction.

The number 1 rule here in this environment (or any environment that is difficult) is to survive. If I can't make progress easily it doesn't matter what anything else is doing, I need to reduce trade frequency, size down, and make sure I'm not trying to fight and press harder where I can open myself up to real damage.

When conditions line up for my style making progress is easy and whenever that appears I want my account to be as whole as possible. Dont want to be using that window to dig out of a hole.

For an uptrend to feel like the wind is at our back we want to see broadening growth participation. We want semis and software to move together. We continue to see one move while the other pulls back which is a major reason making progress in this environment remains difficult. At this point I'm accepting this is the best we will get for now.

Rules for this market:

In the post below I shared the rules for this market. Because of the wide ranges, overnight gaps, and difficult action the only way to make any progress is to abide by these rules.

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Follow rules at all costs

This environment is not forgiving. Normally these uptrends are much more forgiving but any slip up is getting heavily punished. I slipped up last week breaking my overnight rule with TER and it cost me bad decisions end of week. I will leave that post here as its a lesson I need to keep front & center myself.

Plan

The plan this week is to just protect mental and financial capital. Any new trades... smaller size... tight risk. No increasing exposure or trying to press the gas unless the feedback from new trades is positive and I start making progress again.

Focus list

NOW

Collaboration & Content Workflow

6 weeks consolidation above its prior resistance. Watching for ~145 pivot breakout

NOW weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $140.86; weekly move +4.8%; 2.6% below saved level.

DBX

Collaboration & Content Workflow

First time dipping back below its 5 year pivot was defended and last week had resistance -> support confirmation.

DBX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $34.36; weekly move +1.4%.

DDOG

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

Top RS name in software. The 4 week will cross above its recent pivot next week so keeping an eye for retest, inside week, or pullback to the rising 4week

DDOG weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $293.26; weekly move +5.8%.

PLTR

AI Applications & Data Platforms

Beautiful breakout to new all time highs. A pullback that retests near 200 and confirms resistance -> support I would buy back.

PLTR weekly chart for AI Applications & Data Platforms. Latest close $209.05; weekly move +10.8%.

DELL

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

Top RS name during the correction continues to lead. It has had a sideways range here that gives a pivot to work with depending on what next week offers.

DELL weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $586.06; weekly move +4.2%; 2.9% above saved level.

LITE

Optical & Photonics

Following its breakout, the 4-week crossed above its pivot and was supported last week. Retest of 1000 level of inside week makes this very interesting for a setup

LITE weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $1103.36; weekly move +1.7%.

Charts by theme

Themes sorted by number of setups

Collaboration & Content Workflow

CRM

Even tho last week closed red while software was strong it had its first higher weekly close since pulling back end of august.

CRM weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $229.13; weekly move -2.4%.

BOX

Its major pivot was defended and then it followed through last week. Monitoring for inside week, retest of 35 area pivot, or rising 4-week

BOX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $36.39; weekly move +5.5%.

TEAM

TEAM followed through and cleared its pivot after a shakeout week. Same setup.. to get involved, an inside week, retest, or pullback to the rising 4-week

TEAM weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Latest close $206.79; weekly move +10.1%.

Industry-Specific Operations

BB

Not the cleanest chart but reclaimed support... been basing for months and sitting here quiet. Worth monitoring while quiet

BB weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $8.91; weekly move -4.2%.

VEEV

Now that it broke out from its range watching for inside week, or pullback to rising 4-week. Many times the inside week meets the rising 4-week

VEEV weekly chart for Industry-Specific Operations. Latest close $296.13; weekly move +8.3%.

Workforce & Payroll

WDAY

Quiet holding nears highs of its recent push.

WDAY weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $186.59; weekly move +0.2%; 2.8% above saved level.

PAYC

8 week base sitting above all MAs. Watching for inside week or breakout

PAYC weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $232.22; weekly move +5.1%; 2.7% below saved level.

ADP

Not the cleanest chart but bullish engulfing week so monitoring

ADP weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $270.88; weekly move +5.1%; 1.8% above saved level.

PCTY

10 week base. Monitoring for possible quiet inside week thats supported at the 150 pivot

PCTY weekly chart for Workforce & Payroll. Latest close $153.96; weekly move +6.6%; 2.2% below saved level.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

DOCN

DOCN isn't one of the top RS names in software but I still think this pivot is worth monitoring. Big lower wick last week and close above its pivot. 3 weeks tight closing ranges.

DOCN weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $134.82; weekly move -3.7%; 1.8% below saved level.

FROG

New weekly closing high... the 4-week should cross above its recent consolidation pivot next week. Watching that level and an inside week

FROG weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $102.23; weekly move +7.0%.

SNOW

Strong breakout after a big tight base. Cant buy strength in this market...watch for inside week as the 4-week turns up.

SNOW weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $368.89; weekly move +8.2%.

GTLB

Broke out last week of its consoidation. Opened at low and closed at high sign of strength. Will watch this week how it acts as the 4-week turns up can possibly get involved on any pullbacks to it.

GTLB weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Latest close $55.09; weekly move +10.7%.

Cloud Communications

BAND

Subtle resistance -> support last week. All moving averages bunched here. Just building a big base... monitoring for inside week.

BAND weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $53.27; weekly move -16.4%; 1.9% below saved level.

FIVN

New weekly closing high.... 4-week turning up through the pivot. Inside week that meets the 4-week could offer good spot

FIVN weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Latest close $36.40; weekly move +5.9%.

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

SMCI

Resistance -> support flip now 3rd week building this range above its prior pivot. Worth monitoring in this range if it continues to hold 40.

SMCI weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $41.86; weekly move -4.2%.

NTAP

Top RS.... trailing the 4-week. If long this is the best position to be in. No way to get involved tho here.

NTAP weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $237.15; weekly move +4.8%.

HPE

Nothing to do here if not long but trailing the 4-week and a reminder why to focus on the best RS.

HPE weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $73.46; weekly move +6.0%.

FLEX

It closed above its short-term consolidation pivot end of week but chopped around it a few times. Holding the pivot this week is good confirmation its ready.

FLEX weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Latest close $119.83; weekly move +2.8%; 2.2% above saved level.

Optical & Photonics

AXTI

Bearish engulfing last week not great to see but watching how it acts this week. Confirmed the 90 pivot is meaningful and still making higher lows.

AXTI weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $68.46; weekly move -20.3%; 2.7% below saved level.

GLW

Remains trading tight worth monitoring if it breaks above its pivot

GLW weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $156.68; weekly move -4.6%; 2.1% above saved level.

VIAV

Resistance -> support flip last week back above all moving averages. Inside week I would be interested in getting involved the group has been strong.

VIAV weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Latest close $45.46; weekly move -3.5%.

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

MXL

It failed and pulled back below its major pivot but still sitting on the 4-week. Another inside week here Id be interested. Wont buy on strength or be interested if it pulls back more

MXL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $96.16; weekly move -9.2%.

ALAB

ALAB pushed above 400 and finished back below the 365 breakout area. That's a failed breakout, even with the close still above the 10-week. It needs to recover 365 and stop swinging around before it earns another look.

ALAB weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $342.21; weekly move -2.3%.

MRVL

4 week crossing above its 265 pivot. Would like to see it continue to hold and trade inside week build a short-term range to get involved again.

MRVL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Latest close $275.28; weekly move +1.1%.

AI Compute & Accelerators

INTC

INTC gave back most of the recent breakout move and finished near its 10-week. The follow-through I wanted last week did not hold. This needs repair, not another assumption that the first bounce will work.

INTC weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $104.70; weekly move -12.3%.

AMD

Ugly candle but closed on the 4-week. This is the big semi leader so dont want to see it breakdown. Still think worth focusing on if it holds or reclaims the 4-week if it shakes below.

AMD weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Latest close $608.10; weekly move -4.1%.

Hyperscaler AI Capex

GOOGL

GOOGL is trading extremely tight above its prior pivot. Worth monitoring while its quiet.... r/r is good

GOOGL weekly chart for Hyperscaler AI Capex. Latest close $351.66; weekly move +2.4%.

AMZN

Higher lows as it reclaims its 260 pivot last week

AMZN weekly chart for Hyperscaler AI Capex. Latest close $262.43; weekly move +4.3%; 1.5% above saved level.

GPU Neoclouds

SPCX

Still believe this is a top name. Ugly candle last week so monitoring its action this week. I doubt it happens but pullback towards the 150 range again I'd be interested

SPCX weekly chart for GPU Neoclouds. Latest close $162.57; weekly move +2.3%.

Datacenter Networking

CSCO

Watching as it nears its multi-month pivot

CSCO weekly chart for Datacenter Networking. Latest close $118.39; weekly move +5.5%; 2.5% below saved level.

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

TXN

Inside week above all key MAs

TXN weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Latest close $283.74; weekly move -3.4%.

Semicap Equipment

LRCX

Inside week above all key moving averages still

LRCX weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $318.84; weekly move -8.2%.

AMAT

Similar to KLAC, inside week above all key MAs as they bunch up under price. Worth monitoring while its quiet.

AMAT weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $507.03; weekly move -6.1%.

KLAC

Quiet inside week above key moving averages. All averages are bunched up here under price. Monitoring next week if semis stay together.

KLAC weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $195.57; weekly move -5.5%.

ASML

Inside week and above all moving averages. Earnings this week.... break above its base to new highs would be great for the group.

ASML weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Latest close $1780.34; weekly move -4.7%; 1.5% above saved level.

Test & Packaging

ASX

Inside week supported by the rising 4-week near highs. RS

ASX weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Latest close $46.43; weekly move -2.1%.

Healthcare & Biotech

Large-Cap Pharma

LLY

Still working on a multi-month base and remains constructive.

LLY weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $1179.27; weekly move +3.2%.

ABBV

Strong breakout following 3-weeks tight. Monitoring for inside week near the rising 4-week.

ABBV weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $276.47; weekly move +5.2%.

MRK

Continues to build out in this base range. Big lower wick last week I like to see. More meaningful if it stays above 143 pivot next week

MRK weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $145.60; weekly move +0.9%; 1.4% above saved level.

JNJ

See if it reclaims its 263 pivot

JNJ weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Latest close $261.44; weekly move +2.1%; 0.5% below saved level.

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

BFLY

Subtle higher lows tightening as it is still working on a multi-month base. May be nearing completion

BFLY weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $8.25; weekly move -7.8%.

GH

Still holding prior resistance. Technically still basing but resistance -> support flip

GH weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Latest close $167.47; weekly move -5.8%; 0.3% above saved level.

Memory & Storage

Storage Systems & Components

STX

One of the weaker memory names but still a higher low in this base and sitting on the 30week. Losing the 30-week would be a bad sign for memory

STX weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $783.00; weekly move -7.8%.

SIMO

Trading tight one of the better looking memory names. Worth monitoring

SIMO weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Latest close $263.90; weekly move -5.9%; 1.9% below saved level.

Memory Producers

SNDK

SNDK closed below both its 4-week and 10-week after stalling beneath the summer highs. That's weaker than MU and isn't leadership I want to lean on here. It needs to reclaim support and prove it can stay there.

SNDK weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1581.82; weekly move -8.0%.

MU

Still trading tight here worth monitoring.

MU weekly chart for Memory Producers. Latest close $1029.00; weekly move -4.3%; 1.1% below saved level.

Cybersecurity

TENB

Fairly loose base but it closed strong last week through its pivot. A quiet inside week or retest of the 40 pivot could be actionable

TENB weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $41.59; weekly move +12.9%.

ZS

ZS resistance to support flip was followed by a huge breakout last week. I keep underestimating this group and its extended now but on watch if it tightens or pulls back again

ZS weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Latest close $233.73; weekly move +18.9%.

No reason to force anything. No reason to need to be involved either. Going at my own pace.

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