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report feature beach ball underwater

A new trend feels close

Big picture

For the past few weeks it has felt like we are near a decision point and it hasn't come. This may end up being no different but this is the best the market has looked to me since we topped in June.

We have had a lot of reasons to go down that have failed so far and it seems last week was a subtle change in response to negative news. Back in April before the market followed through it stopped going down on the same news it was selling off on in March.

The bad news never stopped, the war escalated, there was a wall of worry and the market stopped caring.

On July 27 Citadel said we will see a rate hike and the Nasdaq fell almost 5%. Last week we got the rate hike and the market closed strong.

On top of the subtle shrugging off the same news that sold us off in July, the negativity seems to be increasing. Everything between the war still impacting oil, inflation out of control, the narrative seems to have picked up and after months of the market being tough it seems a lot of people are focused on why we wont go higher.

So I wonder now...

with the change in reaction to negative news, a wall of worry everyone is focused on, and multi-month bases in growth stocks..... are we close to rallying higher?

It feels like it, we will see.

What I want to see:

For this market to follow through and not fail like August's attempt I want to see

  • Broad growth participation.
  • Semis + software moving together.
  • Tech outperforming.
  • Breakouts out of proper multi-month bases
  • Breakouts following through

If instead we see tech underperform, software and semis not moving up together, and breakouts failing then the environment is going to remain difficult.

I refer to the X post below frequently because it was one of the clearest indications of the environment changing.

After months of frustration we had:

  • Strong breakouts to new highs
  • Coming out of multi-month bases
  • All moving together

As I was looking at charts this weekend we have a lot of multi-month bases that if they broke out similarly could lead a strong new uptrend higher.

Plan

I will be looking to get positioned in a name or 2 depending on how this week plays out. If we get follow through and I make progress I will get aggressive. If not I keep small until I do.

If we are so lucky to break out and rally from here, the environment will support buying strength. I shared a vid on X this morning sharing my thoughts on getting positioned if that happens. Watch here.

Current holdings

Not recorded

No holdings update in this report.

Focus list

AMD

AI Compute & Accelerators
History

This will be a very uncomfortable buy if it breaks out right away but looks like it could rally just as powerfully as April. Potential breakout of a multi-month consolidation. Last week completely engulfed the prior week as well.

AMD weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $559.82; +8.5% from the preceding shown candle.

INTC

AI Compute & Accelerators
History

I still believe this is a top focus and will be a major runner if the market resumes higher. Its tough spot here to get involved. Might have to wait a bit for another A+ entry but remains top focus. Engulfed previous week candle

INTC weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $108.60; +5.5% from the preceding shown candle.

ARM

AI Compute & Accelerators
History

Another semi completely engulfed prior weeks candle, through down trend line and above all key MAs. Looks powerful

ARM weekly chart for AI Compute & Accelerators. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $275.61; +4.1% from the preceding shown candle.

PLTR

AI Applications & Data Platforms
History

Overall still consolidating. In software this was one of the biggest to change character an rip higher on earnings. It has now been consolidating that move for 6 weeks and can be ready for its next leg higher.

PLTR weekly chart for AI Applications & Data Platforms. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $177.64; +6.2% from the preceding shown candle.

SNDK

Memory Producers
History

Closed above 1655 pivot and completely engulfs the prior week's candle. Very constructive looking week opening at lows and closing at highs.

SNDK weekly chart for Memory Producers. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $1791.82; +9.7% from the preceding shown candle.

MU

Memory Producers
History

Doesn't engulf the prior week like SNDK but I have MU zoomed out here to compare vs its previous base earlier this year. This is now a constructive looking base that could support a new leg higher.

MU weekly chart for Memory Producers. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $1015.80; +4.2% from the preceding shown candle.

Charts by theme

AI Infrastructure

The group looks very constructive here.

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

SMCI

History

Not the easiest stock for me to trade historically but its been tightening up here basing. A close through 40 would break it out

SMCI weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $39.09; -2.5% from the preceding shown candle.

HPE

History

Leading the market after holding up like DELL near highs while everything else fell. Shakeout candle 2 weeks ago. I see no re-entry but this and DELL following through is good for the market

HPE weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $60.76; -2.1% from the preceding shown candle.

SNX

History

Still trading very tight with a subtle resistance -> support flip last week. Great base

SNX weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $266.16; -1.1% from the preceding shown candle.

NTAP

History

Similar strength as seen in DELL HPE. Near highs while everything else falls. Not my type of setup but through 200 pivot close should break it out to new highs. Note the massive shakeout candle few weeks ago. Thats one of my favorite characteristics to see before a breakout.

NTAP weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $197.79; -0.7% from the preceding shown candle.

DELL

History

If I was long Id trail the 4-week on a closing basis. No way to enter here but if the market resumes higher this is likely just beginning.

DELL weekly chart for AI Servers, ODMs & Systems. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $568.06; +0.1% from the preceding shown candle.

Optical & Photonics

LITE

History

Still consolidating above prior resistance acting constructive

LITE weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $930.91; +0.4% from the preceding shown candle.

AXTI

History

Higher low... coming up the right side? A close through its recent ~70.30 consolidation pivot is a notable sign of strength.

AXTI weekly chart for Optical & Photonics. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $70.03; +8.1% from the preceding shown candle.

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

MRVL

History

New weekly closing high out of its recent consolidation pivot and above all key MAs.... completely engulfing the prior weeks candle.

MRVL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $244.25; +3.5% from the preceding shown candle.

ALAB

History

Up against its downtrend line and the lows were its previous resistance. So since June highs it has confirmed resistance -> support flip.

ALAB weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $303.25; +4.1% from the preceding shown candle.

MXL

History

Through downtrend line and above all key MAs. This is a massive base a breakout through 100 would trigger a massive leg higher imo. I would wait for that or an inside week near all key MAs.

MXL weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $81.12; +8.8% from the preceding shown candle.

SMTC

History

Breakout of multi month base and closed at high of week. This is acting like a big leader. Could offer an entry on a retest of 166 pivot but for the market I would like for this to follow through right away.

SMTC weekly chart for AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $185.00; +10.6% from the preceding shown candle.

GPU Neoclouds

SPCX

History

Was showing RS going higher while most stocks were going lower still. For an entry I would like it to tighten a bit but something I think with a lot of upside if the market resumes higher based off its RS.

SPCX weekly chart for GPU Neoclouds. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $152.71; +1.0% from the preceding shown candle.

Software

Collaboration & Content Workflow

BOX

History

10 week is catching up to its giant pivot so watching how it acts around here. If it keep above and confirms resistance -> support with 10-week under it that acts as a confluence of support.

BOX weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $33.72; -0.1% from the preceding shown candle.

TEAM

History

After doubling its basing 3 weeks tight near highs. Looks very constructive.

TEAM weekly chart for Collaboration & Content Workflow. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $192.02; +6.9% from the preceding shown candle.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

DOCN

History

Multi month base has held 30 week and closed above all MAs. It is inching higher as it has tested resistance 5 times. Its constant respect for the level means a move above would be notable.

DOCN weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $130.14; +5.8% from the preceding shown candle.

SNOW

History

Software leader 6 weeks tight near highs worth keeping an eye on here. Tight and quiet.

SNOW weekly chart for Cloud & Developer Infrastructure. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $332.43; +1.0% from the preceding shown candle.

Cloud Communications

TWLO

History

RS in software resistance -> support flip near highs. Been consolidating for 7 weeks

TWLO weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $243.84; +7.3% from the preceding shown candle.

RNG

History

One of the most powerful software names that offered no way to get involved. Now 3 weeks tight. Maybe it needs more time but worth watching for next leg up.

RNG weekly chart for Cloud Communications. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $71.86; +4.3% from the preceding shown candle.

Semiconductors

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

TXN

History

Coming up against downtrend line still a break above would also put it over all key MAs

TXN weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $266.64; -0.8% from the preceding shown candle.

MTSI

History

Coming up against down trend line and recent consolidation highs with a big lower wick.

MTSI weekly chart for Analog, Power & Embedded Semis. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $275.86; +0.3% from the preceding shown candle.

Semicap Equipment

ASML

History

Not strong relative to other semis right now but worth keeping on watch. Multi month base, big prior leader, 30 week support, higher low

ASML weekly chart for Semicap Equipment. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $1679.92; -1.1% from the preceding shown candle.

Test & Packaging

TER

History

Zoomed out this is just building a massive base. The bigger the base the bigger the move. Boring now but worth watching

TER weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $371.47; -2.2% from the preceding shown candle.

ASX

History

Bullish engulfing week closed at highs. Weekly close through 42 breaks it out.

ASX weekly chart for Test & Packaging. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $41.63; +5.5% from the preceding shown candle.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSEM

History

Earlier in the week was looking like a breakdown below the 30-week but closed highs of week. Failed breakdown potentially. Move through recent consolidation pivot would be notable.

TSEM weekly chart for Foundries & Wafer Fabrication. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $223.60; +5.7% from the preceding shown candle.

Healthcare & Biotech

Strong action last week in healthcare with multiple stocks breaking out of constructive bases and closing near highs of the week. The healthiest thing to see next would be follow through.

Large-Cap Pharma

MRK

History

Recovered its lower consolidation level. Has digested its recent move long enough. Worth watching if healthcare continues following through

MRK weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $146.87; +2.0% from the preceding shown candle.

JNJ

History

Resistance -> support flip acting well. Watch for follow-through.

JNJ weekly chart for Large-Cap Pharma. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $269.99; +1.7% from the preceding shown candle.

Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices

NTRA

History

Strong breakout from a tight base. Picture perfect action Id like to see more of

NTRA weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $369.39; +12.3% from the preceding shown candle.

GH

History

This is healthy action out of a base. Can it follow through and can more stocks do this is the question.

GH weekly chart for Diagnostics, Health Data & Devices. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $179.38; +14.0% from the preceding shown candle.

Memory & Storage

Memory continues to show RS. It has failed to follow through but looks like it may be one of the first to do so if the market resumes its uptrend.

Storage Systems & Components

SIMO

History

A bit more wide & loose than the other memory but big lower wicks and closed above its mini consolidation pivot looks constructive.

SIMO weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $272.11; -4.3% from the preceding shown candle.

STX

History

Multi-month base on watch if memory leads higher

STX weekly chart for Storage Systems & Components. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $858.79; +3.4% from the preceding shown candle.

Cybersecurity

ZS

History

Higher lows and close above its recent resistance

ZS weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $197.31; +19.9% from the preceding shown candle.

RBRK

History

New closing high above its major resistance. One to watch for possible 100 retest

RBRK weekly chart for Cybersecurity. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $106.71; +23.2% from the preceding shown candle.

Financials & Fintech

Trading & Digital Asset Platforms

HOOD

History

Messy action recently wide & loose but overall constructive for now with a big lower wick.

HOOD weekly chart for Trading & Digital Asset Platforms. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $119.82; +6.4% from the preceding shown candle.

COIN

History

Character change in COIN a crypto play. Big push off lows, 3 weeks sideways and push higher.

COIN weekly chart for Trading & Digital Asset Platforms. Last shown candle Sep 13, 2026; close $194.25; +10.8% from the preceding shown candle.

As always it doesn't matter what the market is doing or what I think, I need to make progress and get good feedback in new trades before I increase exposure. This keeps me from ending up fully exposed when the market is not working for me.

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