Weekly report · Aug 16, 2026

Growth participation is broadening

Semiconductors, AI infrastructure and prior leaders are starting to participate again, adding more growth participation behind this rally.

20D trend

UptrendDowntrendNo clear trend

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

This week in the market was a pleasant surprise. We had a big change in character in the original AI stocks that led us in April as they started to participate again. This is extremely constructive.... a strong uptrend needs broad growth participation and it looks like that is whats happening.

The first week stunk

The rest of the week was pretty choppy after we got our follow through day. It was hard to make progress for me atleast. We had some broad participation from growth on the follow through day then each day started being led by Oil and Energy stuff that isn't growth and can't lead the market. I think that is why the market remained so difficult and choppy the only participation in growth was Software/Cybersecurity.

What changed this week

This week we had Semiconductors and AI infrastructure come back in a big way. Many that were correcting have now clearly cleared their downtrend lines and are definitely acting different. A week or 2 ago it was unsure or not if the recent strength in them was an oversold bounce, but now its clear its much more than that.

NBIS an AI infra stock & leader from April had a massive earnings move. It went from a stock that was pretty much beaten down to going up 35% on earnings and almost 50% for the week. That looks like renewed interest, real institutional demand.

Along with that Memory was the leading growth group last week. That surprise reaction in NBIS and change in character in Memory reignited those groups. That is going to broaden out the growth participation and creates the best environment to trade in.

Software and cybersecurity

Software and cybersecurity have led out of the correction and they were the first stocks to follow through before the market did.

They had a weakish close and pulled back off highs last week but they had big recent moves and it seems like normal action. The best thing that could happen while they pulled back was to see other growth start participating.

What the broadening means

I see many more charts from real growth groups setting up and more opportunities than last week. If we continue to see this participation I'd imagine we keep seeing more and more stuff start to shape up and join as this uptrend progresses. It should feel much stronger more wind behind it.

Plan for this week

My main focus is continuing to get positioned in anticipation this is an early resumed uptrend out of the correction. This was the first week I got much traction so if it continues I will lean into that and add exposure. If traction remains difficult I will continue to keep risk very small on new trades.

Themes I'm focused on

The software & cybersecurity group as they were the first to lead out of the correction as well as new setups emerging in

Semis
AI infrastructure
Some Photonics/Optics
The AI stocks that led us in April

Space stocks look like they are starting to come back to life but I left them off the report as they are too wide & loose for my interest at the moment.

What I want to see

I want to continue seeing the increasing growth participation. Semis should start to complete the right side of their bases and break out and more and more growth stocks should begin participating outside of just Software & Cybersecurity.

The semis and many AI stocks are still building the right side of their bases. They may not follow through again right away but they are within the right side of their bases and some weakness is overall still constructive until they officially do follow through.

Current Positions

INTC

20%

INTC broke back above the 100 livermore level and closed strong on a week they announced an offering. So far best reaction to an offering. I added a bit friday and increased my cost and have to keep risk tight so if we lose 100 and pullback I'll exit and be ready to buy it right back. Favorite name for now

Avg cost

$101.99

Last

$102.50

P&L

+0.50%

HPE

20%

Incredible action and chart. This was one of the only stocks near highs tight when the market corrected which is crazy RS and it is one of the first to break higher. I am not concerned with whatever it wants to do above the 4-week. This has the makings of a potential monster based on its RS and I'm giving in room to breathe similarly to april MU.

Avg cost

$49.30

Last

$58.71

P&L

+19.09%

RBRK

13%

A+ action through major level and $100 livermore level. I moved stops even for now to take risk off and try to give it some room as long as we close above $100. Another I want to give the benefit of the doubt.

Avg cost

$97.92

Last

$102.23

P&L

+4.40%

MU

12%

We will find out if memory finds resistance and pulls in a bit builds a higher low before going higher or if it just continues to break out. I dont have the best entry here so if it pulls in first I am prepared to exit & buy it back

Avg cost

$965.43

Last

$971.66

P&L

+0.65%

Focus

MXL

One of my favorite charts looks double bottomish as it gets through all major moving averages last week. The official pivot to breakout is also the $100 livermore level although Id like to get involved earlier. Either a higher low on weakness or if we have an inside week.

INTC

+2.1% from level

Currently positioned but if I am stopped I am focused on building a position in here around the $100 livermore level. Ideally it pushes out and doesn't return below $100 but if it does then watching for the higher low.

AXTI

I love when a stock has big pops higher through key levels and then the next week pulls back very lightly. It closed near highs and has found support at a cluster of averages. The moving average cluster here looks like a launch pad. I'm interested on another inside week or close through 90

RBRK

+2.8% from level

Strong week that broke above its prior ~$98 resistance and through the $100 livermore level. This ideally shouldnt come back below 100 ideally. If I didn't get in when I did I would be watching action near $100 to try an entry.

SPCX

0.0% from level

The character in SPCX has completely changed. Closed above the 4-week in a powerful way and moved higher last week. On strength if it trades in last week's wick 140 I would be interested in entering. On weakness I will watch the 4-week and last weeks lows for support

ASML

One of my favorite in semis. It was first to lead higher and get back above the 10 and 4 week moving averages. 1930 previous closing high is the non-negotioable breakout level to get involved although I'd like to see an inside week or higher low to get involved earlier.

Notable Charts

Themes in order of one-week RS.

Memory & Storage

Memory proved itself in a big way this week and the character of the stocks has completely changed. They are now all coming up the right side of new bases.

DRAM vs QQQ4-wk RS+3.4%1-wk RS+12.0%

Memory Producers

SNDK

Powerful close at highs of the week and above the 4-week for the first time since it topped. Coming up the right side of a base.

Storage Systems & Components

WDC

So far the laggard of memory this week but found support and if the strength in memory continues it will come up and build the right side of its base. I'd rather focus on the others in memory leading more but a close above $600 level would be significant because its found resistance there the past 5 weeks.

STX

STX had the most strength this week currently leading the memory group. Its now above all key moving averages. Official breakout is around 1050 but can watch for if it retests 940 resistance it closed above this week for resistance - support flip.

AI Infrastructure

TCAI vs QQQ4-wk RS+3.6%1-wk RS+5.7%

AI Networking Silicon & Interconnect

MRVL

Held the 4-week after closing above for the first time again last week and traded fairly tight. Another tight week would have me interested. Building the right side of its base.

ALAB

Its previous resistance it broke out of in May was support on this recent weakness so thats notable. Resistance - suppor flip. Worth monitoring for an entry after an inside week. Close above the 10-week or another inside week would look actionable.

AVGO

-2.4% from level

Id like to see it tighten up but worth keeping an eye on

AI Compute & Accelerators

CBRS

+2.1% from level

Its back to the pivot after earnings. Its not broken but now feels a little wide & loose. Watching to see how it shapes up.

ARM

2 weeks ago it closed above the 4-week for the first time again and last week it traded very tight holding above it. More action above 260 trading tight looks very actionable.

AMD

AMD had the best RS in semis for a while until it started to pull back as well under the pressure. It is coming around and really has just been building a big base at highs. Think a breakout of this would be significant.

GPU Neoclouds

NBIS

Huge week that screams renewed interest.

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

This subtheme with HPE & DELL has stood above the other AI stocks during the correction so I'm interested to see how it plays out. These were 2 of the best RS weekly charts that are finally breaking out and leading the rest of the AI stocks higher. I don't know why but the market has been interested in AI Server stocks and we will find out.

SNX

Trading incredibly tight near highs and in the same group as HPE DELL. Looks like it will get directional soon.

DELL

Top RS stocks that held up finally breaking out. This has a lot of potential. I'm satisfied with my exposure with HPE.

Datacenter Networking

CIEN

Breakout above its down trend line and all key moving averages. Last week pulled back to its downtrend line and was supported. Big change in character. Another sideways open would be actionable

CSCO

Earnings had a bad reaction and it closed near lows of its base. Id like to see it tighten up and Id become interested again.

Optical & Photonics

VIAV

-0.5% from level

Coming up the right side of a base. Close over 44 where it found resistance and the 30-week is significant.

GLW

Not as clean as AXTI but tight week near highs after a big up week. Setting up

AAOI

One of the stronger ones in this group as it made a new weekly closing high from 2 weeks ago. Now above all key moving averages. Another inside week with moving averages converging below it or break above 180 level would become actionable.

Cybersecurity

HACK vs QQQ4-wk RS+1.2%1-wk RS+1.3%

OKTA

-1.0% from level

Close 150 officially breaks it out and it keeps failing to do so. I don't love this much anymore now there seem to be better setups. If this pulls in to low of its base and tightens up maybe I'll be more interested again. Nothing wrong though

FFIV

+1.7% from level

It would have been much better to see this follow higher instead of fading its breakout but its still above a prior resistance for now and basing. Not interested here but worth monitoring

CRWD

One of the leaders in the group. Again I don't love the lack of follow through but its technically not doing anything wrong. Worth monitoring but im not interested here

PANW

Another leader in the group. Better action than CRWD so far. Continued follow through for this would be good to see for the group.

Software

IGV vs QQQ4-wk RS+6.7%1-wk RS+0.2%

Collaboration & Content Workflow

DBX

Broke above 33 a multi year resistance level which is significant. Failed to follow through last week due to software weakness. A pullback to the 4-week or pivot retest I am interested in starting a position.

ADBE

Second week above all key moving averages and character has changed. Not my favorite setup in the market but another sideways week here or weakness to the rising 4-week is actionable.

PATH

Not actionable but worth monitoring incase it pulls back or consolidates into the 4-week.

TEAM

Software leader to monitor but not actionable unless we see a pullback or consolidation into the 4-week.

FIG

+0.4% from level

Near lows while many software has run alot so its a laggard for sure but I like the U turn look to it. Higher low and back above moving averages. A weekly close above 25.50 puts this on breakout

Industry-Specific Operations

BB

Not the best setup here but technically building a base still. Watching 8.30 to hold or make higher lows build the right side.

TOST

Another sideways week as the 4-week catches up and this would look like a great opportunity.

Cloud Communications

RNG

This is a huge multi-year breakout and one of my top software names. A pullback or sideways into the 4-week would be actionable.

Cloud & Developer Infrastructure

SNOW

One of the software leaders I am most interested in on either a pullback or consolidation into the 4-week.

DOCN

Getting interesting again. Back above the 4-week and found resistance at the 10-week 2 weeks in a row now which makes it meaningful. Interested in trying to position here for the close above the 10-week.

AI Applications & Data Platforms

PLTR

This is my number one software name I want to get into just waiting for good r/r. The previous 160 level pivot may not come again so I'm watching the 4-week which should be catching up here. Another week sideways would offer a way to get involved. Not looking the most actionable but keeping a close eye on it.

SOUN

Tight inside week after a big up week. Right into the declining 30-week which it keeps finding resistance at. This looks like its setting up, a close through the big candle's high and 30-week would be significant.

Semiconductors

SMH vs QQQ4-wk RS+0.5%1-wk RS-0.2%

Semicap Equipment

ONTO

Not one of my favorite charts but theres structure. Its sitting near highs on top of its prior pivot. New highest weekly close

Test & Packaging

FORM

Has a double bottom look to it. Above all moving averages and strong weekly close. An inside week or higher low could offer good way to get involved before the official ~160 level base breakout.

TER

-0.3% from level

Basically has been building a multi-month base so a break out of this could be significant. Strong close at the top of its range could officially break out next week.

Analog, Power & Embedded Semis

TXN

Working up the right side of a base not interested yet but monitoring.

LSCC

Similar to most semis its no longer breaking down its base building and working on the right side.

Foundries & Wafer Fabrication

TSEM

-2.6% from level

Working up the right side of its base. A breakout from here to new highs would be significant.

Precious Metals

I'm not going to leave individual commentary on the charts below but the group is worth monitoring still. The action 2 weeks ago seemed significant but it failed to follow-through last week and we saw AI stocks start to participate. I'm more interested in the growth stocks if they continue to participate, but monitoring these as well.