Weekly report · Aug 2, 2026

Which way?

This week we are watching for a FTD but we need to see broad growth participation. I want to see semiconductors rebase and hold last week's lows for a chance of seeing that happen.

20D trend

UptrendDowntrendNo clear trend

QQQ

SPY

IWM

Overview

I don't see much to get excited about going into this week but keeping an open mind and I know what I am watching incase its game time. At the moment there aren't many multi-month bases near highs in growth. A lot of strength in growth over the past week has come from software while the original semi leaders have broken down. That is fine if they are going to become the new leaders but there is a lack of constructive software charts. Most of the strength last week seems to be in off the bottom stocks.

The software stocks already near highs need to lead. A big bounce in broken stocks is not real RS and not capable of leading us higher. I want to see DDOG, CRWD, PANW and the other constructive charts near highs break out and lead us higher if software is going to lead. DDOG has earnings this week so that reaction should tell us a lot.

Semiconductors should not take out last weeks lows. The big bounce across semis makes those lows significant. I don't think they lead us again for quite some time but for the market to be able to follow through higher they cant continue to break down.

Monday is day three of the rally attempt and Tuesday is the earliest day we can get a follow-through day. If Monday is constructive and I have a clean setup I may put on one position for feedback in anticipation of a FTD, but there is no reason to force anything before the market proves it.

A follow-through day is a sign the bounce off lows can be more than just a bounce, and the beginning of a new uptrend but outside of the actual FTD, it is important we see broad growth participation.

Plan for this week

If we get a FTD:

I want a lot of quality growth setups around it. When the market followed through in April there were so many buyable setups it felt like a kid in a candy store. That is the feeling I want. If the index follows through but the only strength is mega caps or broken stocks flying off the lows then I will not put much weight on it. I would still put a small position on because thats my rule, but I would need to see progress in it and have the market continue to prove itself. Ranges should become more narrow and controlled as liquidity returns.

The action after it has to keep improving. If we get a FTD it shouldn't be followed by volatility, and we should see the characteristics of the market change. For the past 7 weeks, good earnings have been sold, good news has been sold, the market gaps up and down huge everyday. After a FTD if the market is truly improving that should change.

Good earnings acting as catalysts and gapping us higher, breakouts stick and follow through, overnight gaps begin to dissapear. When the environment changes you feel it because strength starts getting rewarded with more strength.

If the follow-through is there but the setups are not: I probably start with one position and a tight stop, then wait for feedback.

If growth participates and the setups are everywhere: I can start with one or two positions and add exposure progressively as things work.

There is never a rush. If the market bottom is in and the uptrend resumes, even if you miss a week or so of strength it doesn't matter because a real new uptrend opens up a long window of opportunity.

For the past 7 weeks buying strength has not been an option, but if a new trend resumes, even if stuff isn't at optimal buy points, buying strength is usually followed up by more strength.

What I am watching

These are the stocks and themes I am watching for better leadership, cleaner setups, and improved feedback.

4 focus names

My Focus

HPE

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

Focus

Same high quality organized chart as DELL. This is a chart that either breaks higher and leads the next trend or is one of the last to crack under market pressure.

DELL

AI Servers, ODMs & Systems

Focus

Still one of the cleanest charts of all. Trading near highs in a tight range like this is strength and the signs of a future market leader. This will be one of the first stocks to break out and lead the market, or one of the last to crack under pressure.

NTAP

Enterprise Storage Systems

Focus

Fairly tight organized base near highs similar to HPE DELL. It closed strong last week... if it can follow through higher that is notable as a characteristic change of the market. The market needs clean multi month bases breaking out to new highs.

CBRS

AI Compute & Accelerators

Focus

Recent IPO that has been rounding out a bottom and looks like it can be getting ready to move higher depending on the market. With the wind at its back this could be a strong mover.

Theme 1 of 6

AI Infrastructure

The server stocks look better than most AI infrastructure but RS has continued to crack. HPE held up, DELL pulled back into its base, AMD has earnings and SNX is another fairly clean chart in the same general area. These are among some of the cleanest charts of all to watch.

TCAI is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksTCAI -7.4%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekTCAI -5.2%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

AI Compute & Accelerators

AMD

AI Compute & Accelerators

As AI infra stocks sold off AMD remains in a fairly tight range near highs. This is notable and RS. It has earnings this week which should give us a lot of information. Gap and go higher could bring renewed interest back into the group and market. Being sold off and breaking down will be more signs of weakness.

IT Distribution & Integration

SNX

IT Distribution & Integration

Clean sideways basing near highs so far similar to DELL HPE. A candidate for leading us higher.

Theme 2 of 6

Semiconductors

Semis got hit the hardest the past few weeks then bounced back pretty aggressively. The question now is do they continue breaking down or do they rebase? They do not need to lead immediately but they do need to stop breaking down and start building bases because I do not see how broad growth leadership develops if this group keeps distributing.

SMH is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksSMH -8.7%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekSMH -3.7%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

Semicap Equipment

ASML

Semicap Equipment

This was one of the top relative strength charts before last week and then the relative strength cracked. It bounced at the 30-week and may not be broken, but I want at least a week or two sideways to show me a base is actually forming.

Theme 3 of 6

Software

Software is the only growth group I can see taking the lead if semiconductors need time to repair, but it can't be stocks up a lot off the bottom. It needs to be constructive software stocks basing near highs.

IGV is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksIGV +1.1%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekIGV +7.5%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

Cloud Communications

RNG

Cloud Communications

This is a fresh stage 2 uptrend out of a multi-year base. Its good to see but for it to become a reliable leadership candidate it needs to trade sideways for 2-3 weeks to prove it can consolidate recent gains and isn't just off the bottom.

Observability & Cloud Infrastructure

This is the software cluster that matters most because DDOG, SNOW and NET are near highs showing RS. If software is actually taking the lead these should be the first charts to break out and hold. If they fail and the strength in software continues to come from stocks off the bottom that is a red flag.

SNOW

Observability & Cloud Infrastructure

This is near highs showing RS. If it breaks out and holds that is good information, and if it gets sold again then it is the same behavior we have been seeing for weeks.

NET

Observability & Cloud Infrastructure

Another constructive chart in software that can lead us. This has earnings coming up this week so how it reacts can provide us with good information into the market.

DDOG

Observability & Cloud Infrastructure

This is software stock capable of leading us. Base near highs. It has has earnings this week like NET. How it reacts should be very telling. Can it gap up and lead the group higher?

Collaboration & Content Workflow

TEAM

Collaboration & Content Workflow

Back in May it had a big move higher - tight consolidation - big move higher. Then it failed and has been trading sideways. It can still be in its overall downtrend. For it to become a top name in the group again it should trade tight and like it did in April May.

Workforce & Payroll

Most of these software stocks are up a lot and responsible for most of the RS we have seen in software. They are not constructive charts that can lead us though. I still think they deserve to be watched because if they consolidate and tighten up then they can become great opportunities.

ADP

Workforce & Payroll

Straight off lows, to become constructive it needs to consolidate.

PAYX

Workforce & Payroll

Can it consolidate and tighten up? Not interested until then and not a stock capable of leading us higher.

PAYC

Workforce & Payroll

The recent strength could be a real sign of renewed interest but its not a chart that can lead. If the move is real and its strong it will consolidate, tighten up, and digest its off the bottom move.

WDAY

Workforce & Payroll

This had the biggest character change in the payroll group but it is still off the bottom and not a chart capable of leading us higher.

PCTY

Workforce & Payroll

Possibly new life coming into this with the rest of the payroll software stocks but it has a lot more to prove. Tighten up sideways and base or it remains junk off the bottom.

Industry-Specific Operations

VEEV

Industry-Specific Operations

Looks like a character change. Move off lows and back above the 30-week was followed by tight range sideways then another leg up. This is so far constructive action.

TOST

Industry-Specific Operations

Back above the 30-week after 3 weeks sideways. This will become a nice chart if this move is followed by another consoidation before going higher.

MANH

Industry-Specific Operations

Big move up that failed to close near the highs of its range. We saw similar action in July of 2025. This needs to be followed by tight action sideways then it could be on watch for another leg up.

Theme 4 of 6

Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity was already one of the cleaner growth groups before the rally attempt, so this is where I want to see real leadership show up first. The group has had plenty of strong breakouts that went nowhere, and that needs to change now.

HACK is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksHACK -0.2%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekHACK +1.5%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

OKTA

Cybersecurity

Basing near highs. A stock to watch for potential leadership.

FTNT

Cybersecurity

Strong RS another candidate near highs to watch. Can it breakout and follow through? Or does it continue to crack like the rest of RS.

PANW

Cybersecurity

Sideways near highs. If it can break out and follow through instead of fading and chopping sideways that will be good insight into the market.

CRWD

Cybersecurity

My favorite cybersecurity chart. Shakeout action through its pivot. Same thing as the rest, can they decisively breakout and lead us higher?

Theme 5 of 6

Healthcare & Biotech

Healthcare is another group with some constructive action but isn't a group that can lead the market.

XLV is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksXLV -0.7%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekXLV 0.0%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

Large-Cap Pharma

MRK

Large-Cap Pharma

So far clean base breakout followed by a retest of its pivot. If this is what growth stocks looked like here we would be in great shape.

LLY

Large-Cap Pharma

5 weeks sideways after moving higher and sitting on the 10-week. Fairly constructive action although healthcare stocks cant lead us higher.

Theme 6 of 6

Memory & Storage

These were the most important stocks of the recent uptrend so they remain important. Along with semis they had big bounces last week. I highly doubt they are the stocks to lead us again and head back to highs but the market can't have them break down. Watching to see if the bounce last week begins the base building process.

DRAM is compared with QQQ and SPY over four weeks from a shared 0% baseline. The shaded final segment and right-side labels show last week.

Past four weeksDRAM -16.9%QQQ -3.5%SPY +0.3%

Last weekDRAM -5.3%QQQ +0.5%SPY +1.1%

Memory Producers

SNDK

Memory Producers

This has earnings this week so should be interesting for AI infra as a whole. This isn't showing as much RS as other memory at the moment. It has sold off heavily, not watching to see if it builds a new base.

MU

Memory Producers

The chart despite the distribution over the last few weeks looks constructive at the moment. This can keep going sideways another few weeks and rebase and it would become a top focus again.