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June 21 report feature

Narrowing Focus

Nick Schmidt

Overview

I keep saying I'm bullish, but this environment is different from it was April/May. The action is more volatile, we have been more prone to morning gaps, and overall just getting new positions has been more difficult. AMD last week alone took 3 attempts until the current one worked for now.

Last week's report was focused on Feedback Invites Exposure. After I started to get positive recent feedback I added more exposure and continued to get positive feedback.

Themes Observation

Last week the strongest groups were:

• Semiconductors
• Neoclouds

We also saw some developing strength in:

• Materials

The weakest:

• Software


Many Space stocks are near support areas however this group continues to be an avoid for me personally just because its been trading rough and the easier trades are in Semis + Neoclouds.

There are a handful of really good looking stocks in Software that deserve attention if we see the group come around.... otherwise without group participation the trade becomes more difficult.

Plan for this week

No chasing anything. Most likely avoiding first 30-minutes because it has been extremely difficult recently for me trying to do anything in that time period.

I feel I am positioned fairly well and if stopped on any current names like HUT I will be looking to get back in. Potentially open to adding exposure to INTC on a retest. Keeping focus fairly narrow this week.

There are so many good looking setups, but the ones in the groups that are powerful behind it are much easier money than the ones without their group behind it. I'm focused mainly on Semis/Neoclouds, unless we see a change in character from Software.

Current Holdings

100% invested|0% cash
MU10%
+174.26%
Avg $413.47Last $1133.99
INTC20%
+14.87%
Avg $116.64Last $133.99
DELL20%
+4.41%
Avg $392.19Last $409.50
TSLA15%
-0.38%
Avg $402.03Last $400.49
HUT20%
+1.28%
Avg $122.87Last $124.44
AMD15%
+3.81%
Avg $517.65Last $537.37

Position Notes

MU10% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Continues to ride the 4-week. They report earnings Wednesday. Will be interesting for sure..... I will be holding.
INTC20% position
MA4W·10W·30W
New weekly closing high. Officially broke out of its 5 week base. On any weakness this week a retest of the 125 pivot would confirm resistance -> support.
DELL20% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Still sitting in its tight range. Hasn't broke out yet so chop expected. Maybe it stays in its range another week or 2 similar to DOCN did.
TSLA15% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Its just getting tighter and tighter but honestly this will be first thing I cut probably if I buy something else.
HUT20% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Snuck in last week using low of week and 4-week ideally see this push out of its 3 week tight range right away. On any weakness I will be stopped and watch to buy back
AMD15% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Ideally this now has pushed out of its 3 week range and moves right away. Low of week / prior 3 week tight pivot will be on watch on weakness for resistance -> support flip.

My Focus

5 charts
DELL$409.50
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Current position extremely tight near highs. When a stock moves up this much and tightens near highs its a sign of strength. Until it closes above 420 its still basing and can be choppy, but thats when I'd prefer to accumulate.
NVTS$24.02
Analog & Cyclical Semis
MA4W·10W·30W
Inside week last week as it consolidates above prior ATH. So far big resistance -> support flip. Ideal scenario is another inside week or retest closer to the $22 level to get involved.
6mo view
Prior ATH
HUT$124.44
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
One of the strongest neoclouds. I used the tight price last week to sneak in ideally if it pushes right out of this 3-week tight area. If it gets stopped out this week I will be watching the 4-week to buy right back.
INTC$133.99
AI Compute
MA4W·10W·30W
Picture perfect base breakout to new highs. A pullback and retest of $125 pivot level could offer good spot to get involved or add if it confirms resistance -> support flip.

Notable Charts

19 charts
Software
For now this group is not as appealing to me as Semis/Neoclouds. It can shape up and regain strength quick though and the charts below are where I would focus if that happens.
BB$8.38
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Base building.... top watch in the group for me.
3+ Quarters Sales acceleration
CRWD$684.86
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Base building near highs. Constructive
DDOG$223.00
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Base building near highs. Strong just needs group
FROG$82.72
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Tightening near highs. More sideways would be +
TWLO$186.17
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Failed breakout now just back in its base. Nothing wrong with base building. Breakout likely would have stuck if the group was behind it.
Foundries & Semicap
AMAT$617.11
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W
Nothing to do here unless it pulls into the rising 4-week for an entry. But a huge leader that if it did would deserve an entry.
ASML$1929.68
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W
Same as AMAT. Big liquid leader now extended for new entries, but would prioritize on a pullback to the rising 4-week
ONTO$333.76
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W
Broke out and held above its pivot last week. An inside week or retest again would set up good r/r
TER$437.92
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W
Leader broke out to new highs after consolidating. I would be using this new pivot around 420 to manage risk. Breakout stays intact above, back to consolidation below.
Power & Grid
PWR$702.25
Power & Grid
MA4W·10W·30W
Tight action following a shakeout week. Constructive
Materials
MP$60.88
Materials
MA4W·10W·30W
Materials group has been slowly developing. MP still working its way up the right side of its base. My favorite name in the group. If I was looking to enter I'd prefer to enter near the trendline on a higher low before the breakout.
Neoclouds
APLD$46.59
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Sitting outside of its base still so the uptrend is intact but its a bit wide & loose. Keeping on radar but would need to see it tighten if any new opportunity to get involved.
CIFR$29.18
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Beautiful breakout follow through last week after shaking and closing back above its base pivot. If I was in this I would be using the rising 4-week on a closing basis to manage it. Ideally it trends it.
NBIS$286.69
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
This is the top dog in the group. Trailing the 4-week. I see no way to get in again now but a tight range or pullback to the 4-week could offer another opportunity. Look how it shakes below the 4-week but doesn't close below.
Fintech
DAVE$314.44
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
Fresh breakout of its huge base finally while the whole group strengthens. Retest of breakout pivot could offer way to get involved. I shared this when it made its first higher low in May that it is coming up the right side.
HOOD$108.15
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
No way to get involved now but if its going to become a leader again it will offer many spots so keeping on watch.
Memory & Storage
Strongest group in the market. MU earnings this week will be interesting for it.
SNDK$2184.75
Memory & Storage
MA4W·10W·30W
If this pulls back to the rising 4-week again by any chance I will try to get in. Its up so much it feels weird but it keeps going and offering ways to manage risk.
AI Compute
AMD$537.37
AI Compute
MA4W·10W·30W
Its broken out of its 3 week range. Next week rising 4-week should be above the pivot. Ideally this can trail higher. Risk can be managed vs 4-week / pivot.
AI Networking Silicon
This group has shown the top strength in the market outside of memory. The good entries are gone but leaders that do this always deserve trying to sneak in on pullbacks that make sense.
ALAB$417.07
AI Networking Silicon
MA4W·10W·30W
Riding 4-week. Potential way to sneak in if it pulls in.