Mar 30 – Apr 3, 2026
by Nick Schmidt · April 4, 2026
Market is still in a downtrend but the week was actually strong from Tuesday on, just still within character of a counter-trend rally. Thursday was the standout, strong close on a gap down with notable participation and the market getting bought on bad news. Monday is the first day eligible for a follow-through day.
Markets were closed Friday for Good Friday so people held into a three-day weekend with a ton of headline risk which says something about conviction. That's not what you normally see in a downtrend. So I consider it an expectation breaker and something to take note of if it continues because the market will always bottom on bad news and climb a wall of worry. It's just is it now or is this a similar counter trend rally like last week.
Ugly action, new low. This is now the low being used for the follow-through day count.
Big up day but biggest up days happen in downtrends so no reason to chase. Lots of wide and loose charts that would need to tighten up before getting excited.
Good action but still not enough evidence for either direction.
Gap down being bought with notable participation. Market getting bought on bad news which has not been the pattern. Strong close, extremely impressive. Doesn't mean the bottom is in but this is an expectation breaker. Monday we can be eligible for a follow-through day.
Markets closed for Good Friday.
My best stretches have always been the ones where I traded the least and sat the longest. The belief is that being a good trader means always hunting for the next thing but the market rewards timing over effort. Timing usually means doing nothing for way longer than feels comfortable. I placed a ton of trades the first two months of this year trying to get positioned till I finally got the notice to sit cash.
Leaders always move first. Last year NFLX was one of the big leaders and when SPY pulled back -14% from its first low NFLX only pulled back -5%. That relative strength was telling you something and NFLX was the first to gap to new highs and follow through.
Before both of the recent corrections there was a stretch where everything just felt harder. Stops getting hit more often, breakouts failing more often. At the time you can't point to why but looking back the distribution was already happening under the surface. If the market stops rewarding you, you can press harder and lean into the frustration thinking you'll figure it out or you can listen to the feedback and trade smaller until your results start improving again.