Feb 16 – Feb 20, 2026
Three Days of Growth Participation
by Nick Schmidt · February 22, 2026
Three consecutive days of real growth participation for the first time since this chop started, and I think that's the most important thing that happened this week. Strong action in semis and growth names actually participating — the last time I saw that was months ago, and it could be a subtle change under the hood that starts moving us higher but we're still in chop so the game plan doesn't really change, I'm not going to start buying strength and I'm not going to force trades without seeing positive feedback first.
Friday a tariff court ruling hit mid-day and that's exactly the kind of news that could have been a reason to sell off, more uncertainty, more reason to exit, and the market just shrugged it off. I don't know if the move in growth is real yet, but it's notable, and I'll be moving some names that are near highs onto the watchlist this week.
Current Holdings
40% invested|60% cash
SymbolAvg CostLastP&L
TSLA15%
$402.71$411.90+2.28%Avg $402.71Last $411.90
Respecting $400. Entry at $402 stops $399 is 0.7% risk. If growth participation continues this leads.
ET15%
$17.80$18.98+6.64%Avg $17.80Last $18.98
Best position I have. Earnings behind it, energy breaking out across the board. Moving stops up slowly.
ENPH10%
$43.83$46.58+6.29%Avg $43.83Last $46.58
Character change gap on highest volume in over a year. Solar showed real strength Friday. These take time.
Dropped LYB at even Tuesday, re-established ENPH at a better entry same day. Net result: swapped a materials name for a solar name with a tighter stop.
Day by Day
Monday
—Holiday Prep2026-02-16Markets closed for Presidents Day so I spent the day going through charts. Posted a watchlist for the week focused on midstream energy and homebuilders.
- Energy was the main focus going into the week — midstream names in multi-year breakouts, the priority is exposure
- Defense tightening near highs, homebuilders following through — themes that have recently been working and this is the follow-through confirmation
- ROBO breaking out of a 5-year base — not what you'd expect in this environment
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Tuesday
—Hypocrite2026-02-17QQQ opened below the 30-week with 70% of stocks lower in the first 30 minutes. Moved TSLA stops to even, not willing to give it room in this environment, hit and was out. Then watched it drift toward the $400 level I'd been watching for months and when it got there I started it back for a potential bounce attempt at $402 with stops at $399, 0.7% to stops, super tight entry. Sold LYB at even and picked up ENPH at its 4-week, so three trades by noon on the same day I posted the Lipschutz quote about sitting on your hands.
- LHX and HII tight near all-time highs while everything else selling off — best-looking names in defense
BoughtTSLA (Re-bought near $400, entry $402 stops $399), ENPH (~10% at 4-week support)
SoldTSLA (Moved stops to even, not giving it room — stopped out), LYB (Out at even)
Wednesday
—Growth Shows Up2026-02-18First day in weeks where tech and growth actually participated, not just the defensive stuff that's been working. QQQ weekly candle developing here is the most constructive it's been in a while.
- LHX and HII standing out a lot — same setup, same timing, relative strength in a group where other defense names look similarly constructive, and that congruency is exactly what we saw in homebuilders two to three weeks before that theme really worked
Real-time posts from this day (4)
Thursday
—Growth Again2026-02-19Second consecutive day of growth participation and one day I wouldn't read much into, but two days in a row starts to mean something. QQQ looked decisive most of the day and then lost that look into close, which has been the pattern.
- Oil and gas as a whole breaking out of multi-year bases, and now the entire group is getting follow-through — CNQ, DLNG, EPD, ET, GLP, KMI, MPLX, WMB all moving together, which is what proves the rotation is real
- TSLA respecting $400 better than I expected
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Friday
—Tariff Shrug2026-02-20Semis were the strongest group at open and then the tariff court ruling hit mid-day and the market basically shrugged it off. More growth participation.
- Solar showed real strength — ENPH, CSIQ, and RUN all moving together
- GOOGL printed what could be a decisive weekly candle at a potential low
- EEM breaking out of a massive monthly base — worth digging into
Real-time posts from this day (4)
Lessons
01
The reaction is the signal, not the news
Since October every strong earnings got sold and every positive catalyst got faded, so I adjusted — good news means sell, that was just the default. Friday a tariff ruling drops that adds more uncertainty by any logic and the market shrugged it off. That's not nothing. If bad news is starting to get ignored and good news is starting to get rewarded, that's how the environment shifts before you realize it's shifted — it always shows up in the reactions first.
Rule:Watch how the market responds to news, not what the news says. The pattern flips in the reactions before it shows up anywhere else.
02
Chop and trend are two different markets
Look at the two charts. The trending one — small contained candles, minimal gaps, consistent direction, the environment cooperates. The chop chart is a different market, enormous candles, gaps everywhere, 2-3% one day reversed the next.
Rule:Wide ranges with no follow through make risk management a guessing game, and every position gets stress-tested on noise that means nothing. Reducing size and reducing activity is just required.
03
Remove the option, don't fight the urge
Tuesday I had the market open all morning, watched every tick, and was way more active than I needed to be. Wednesday I closed the app and checked in at intervals and made zero unplanned moves. The difference wasn't discipline, it was just what I had in front of me. The goal isn't to get better at resisting the urge, it's to just not have the option sitting there.
Rule:Don't try to out-discipline yourself. Change the environment instead. Close the app, set alerts, go do something else.
Trade Walkthrough — ENPH
Buying weakness on the 4-week for a 2% stop
Character ChangeWeakness Entry
ENPH had been on my watch for an early character change, and when it gapped on the biggest volume in over a year that was the signal, that kind of volume on a gap tells you something is genuinely different about the stock now, not just a bounce. I entered on the gap but it got extended quickly and I got stopped out, which was the correct call, except the thesis hadn't changed because character changes almost always produce a higher low after the initial move rather than just rolling back over, so that was what I was watching for. Re-entered at $43.83 with stops just under the 4-week, about 2% risk, which is actually tighter than the original gap entry. Solar had real strength Friday and the position was up over 6% from Tuesday's entry.
Takeaway:On the weekly the character change is the bigger move and sometimes it just takes a couple tries to get positioned in it.