Nov 17 – Nov 21, 2025
Nick SchmidtNovember 23, 2025
Came into this week holding 30% TSLA and waiting. My trading decisions aren't about where we go next. Sometimes the best trade is no trade regardless of whether the market goes up or down from here. When the environment is difficult with wide ranges, stocks not rewarding good news, low follow-through, the right decision is preservation.
NVDA reported really good earnings Wednesday night and initially had a really good reaction. Thursday morning gap up felt like a follow-through day, most stocks continuing higher from the open, it felt like a change in character. Started a very small GEV pilot then added weakness to build to 15%. But then everything gave up gains and sold off to lows on good earnings and news. That confirmed the environment hasn't changed. Exited GEV same day for a loss that should never have happened if I was waiting for the close like usual. Sold remaining TSLA. 100% cash.
Friday reinforced it. NFLX leading lower at dead lows, TSLA closed inside the monthly pivot. NASDAQ, S&P, QQQ all below the 10-week. Old leadership has rolled over. Intermediate term I'm very optimistic, this AI market has years ahead, but right now the environment is extremely low probability.
Went 100% cash Thursday November 20th. Full preservation mode.
My trading decisions aren't about where we go next. Sometimes the best trade is no trade regardless of whether the market goes up or down from here. When the environment is difficult with wide ranges, stocks not rewarding good news, low follow-through, the right decision is preservation.
I can look out there and still see some textbook high-quality chart setups but I'm not interested in taking them because the context around them is the environment is extremely low probability. Context over setup, always.
NVDA reported strong earnings after hours. Initial reaction was very positive. Watching to see if Thursday confirms a real change in character.
Morning gap up felt like a follow-through day. Most stocks continuing higher from the open, it felt like a change in character. Started a very small GEV pilot then added weakness to build to 15%. But then everything gave up gains and sold off to lows on good earnings and news. That confirmed the environment hasn't changed. Exited GEV same day for a loss that should never have happened if I was waiting for the close like usual. Sold remaining TSLA. 100% cash. Real bad action happening on good news is what makes it more concerning.
Friday reinforced the decision. NFLX leading lower at dead lows. TSLA closed inside the monthly pivot. NASDAQ, S&P, QQQ all below the 10-week. Old leadership has rolled over. Happy to be in cash.
The market right now is why I always say context over setup. I can look out there and still see some textbook high-quality chart setups but at the moment I'm not interested in taking them because the context around it is the environment is extremely low probability. A perfect chart setup in a terrible environment is still a low-probability trade.
I don't need to predict the market's direction to make good decisions. Sometimes the best trade is no trade regardless of whether the market goes up or down from here. When the environment is difficult with wide ranges, stocks not rewarding good news, low follow-through, the right decision is preservation for my style.