Nov 10 – Nov 14, 2025
Nick SchmidtNovember 16, 2025
The environment has shifted since October 10th. Wide and loose price action with gaps almost every night. Compare that to April through September when ranges were tight and gaps were rare. Good news and earnings aren't getting rewarded. The pattern since October has been consistent and it's not rewarding position trades.
Sold 70% of TSLA on Thursday. The exit wasn't ideal, it was lower than my planned 10-week stop and at a spot where I could have been a buyer. But when you're getting crushed you have to step back. I gave back more than I should have the past 3 weeks and the right move now is reducing exposure and focusing on preservation.
Still holding 30% TSLA into the weekend. Watching the focus list for any signs of character change but nothing constructive is happening.
Reduced from full TSLA position to 30% Thursday. Preservation mode.
Choppy action continuing from last week. Wide ranges and gaps almost every night since October 10th. Holding TSLA but the environment has shifted, not the tight constructive action we had from April through September.
Markets closed.
More of the same choppy action. Good news getting sold, earnings reactions not sticking. The pattern since October has been consistent and it's not rewarding position trades.
Sold 70% of TSLA. The exit wasn't ideal, it was lower than my planned 10-week stop and at a spot where I could have been a buyer. But the environment has shifted since October 10th with more volatility, wider ranges, more gaps. Good news and earnings aren't getting rewarded. When you're getting crushed you have to step back.
Holding the remaining 30% TSLA. Watching the focus list for any signs of character change. Nothing constructive happening.
When you see big nasty down candles I usually refer to that action as trend stoppers. It may not collapse and go further but it usually at least means that the stock needs time. When you see a big ugly down week in real time you naturally think the stock is toast and going to zero. Sometimes that's true but statistically these kinds of candles usually just mean the stock needs time to re-base before becoming actionable again.
There's windows where you press and when that window is not present just focus on preservation. Otherwise you work yourself out of a hole. If you chop yourself up trying to trade through difficult periods you'll waste the next good period just trying to get back to breakeven instead of actually compounding. Stay flat or very small during the chop so that when conditions improve you can press from a position of strength rather than from a deficit.