Nov 10 – Nov 21, 2025
by Nick Schmidt · November 23, 2025
The past two weeks have been a lot of chop and really gappy and volatile action, just not a strong environment. Nvidia reported really good earnings and initially had a really good reaction. The reaction that we've seen on good earnings and across the market on good news is it's been sold and Thursday after almost looked like a strong follow-through type day from NVDA renewing confidence in the market but then it completely failed and confirmed that the environment is no good and I need to focus on preserving here. Went 100% cash Thursday afternoon.
Friday reinforced it. NFLX leading lower at dead lows, TSLA closed inside the monthly pivot. We're in correction territory now. NASDAQ, S&P, QQQ all below 50-day. Old leadership has rolled over.
Intermediate term I'm very optimistic, this AI market has years ahead, but right now the environment is extremely low probability. Since October 10th we've had wide and loose price action with gaps almost every night. Compare that to April through September when ranges were tight and gaps were rare. I gave back more than I should have the past 3 weeks. Now waiting for a more favorable environment to participate in.
Went 100% cash Thursday November 20th. Full preservation mode.
Choppy action continuing from last week. Wide ranges and gaps almost every night since October 10th. Holding TSLA but the environment has shifted, not the tight constructive action we had from April through September.
Markets closed.
More of the same choppy action. Good news getting sold, earnings reactions not sticking. The pattern since October has been consistent and it's not rewarding position trades.
Sold 70% of TSLA. The exit wasn't ideal, it was lower than my planned 10-week stop and at a spot where I could have been a buyer. But the environment has shifted since October 10th with more volatility, wider ranges, more gaps. Good news and earnings aren't getting rewarded. When you're getting crushed you have to step back.
Holding the remaining 30% TSLA. Watching the focus list for any signs of character change. Nothing constructive happening.
My trading decisions aren't about where we go next. Sometimes the best trade is no trade regardless of whether the market goes up or down from here. When the environment is difficult with wide ranges, stocks not rewarding good news, low follow-through, the right decision is preservation.
I can look out there and still see some textbook high-quality chart setups but I'm not interested in taking them because the context around them is the environment is extremely low probability. Context over setup, always.
NVDA reported strong earnings after hours. Initial reaction was very positive. Watching to see if Thursday confirms a real change in character.
Morning gap up felt like a follow-through day. Most stocks continuing higher from the open, it felt like a change in character. Started a very small GEV pilot then added weakness to build to 15%. But then everything gave up gains and sold off to lows on good earnings and news. That confirmed the environment hasn't changed. Exited GEV same day for a loss that should never have happened if I was waiting for the close like usual. Sold remaining TSLA. 100% cash. Real bad action happening on good news is what makes it more concerning.
Friday reinforced the decision. NFLX leading lower at dead lows. TSLA closed inside the monthly pivot. NASDAQ, S&P, QQQ all below 50-day. Old leadership has rolled over. Happy to be in cash.
The market right now is why I always say context over setup. I can look out there and still see some textbook high-quality chart setups but at the moment I'm not interested in taking them because the context around it is the environment is extremely low probability. A perfect chart setup in a terrible environment is still a low-probability trade.
I don't need to predict the market's direction to make good decisions. Sometimes the best trade is no trade regardless of whether the market goes up or down from here. When the environment is difficult with wide ranges, stocks not rewarding good news, low follow-through, the right decision is preservation for my style.
When you see big nasty down candles I usually refer to that action as trend stoppers. It may not collapse and go further but it usually at least means that the stock needs time. When you see a big ugly down week in real time you naturally think the stock is toast and going to zero. Sometimes that's true but statistically these kinds of candles usually just mean the stock needs time to re-base before becoming actionable again.
There's windows where you press and when that window is not present just focus on preservation. Otherwise you work yourself out of a hole. If you chop yourself up trying to trade through difficult periods you'll waste the next good period just trying to get back to breakeven instead of actually compounding. Stay flat or very small during the chop so that when conditions improve you can press from a position of strength rather than from a deficit.