Oct 27 – Oct 31, 2025
by Nick Schmidt · November 2, 2025
So far it's looking like the action last week was an aggressive shakeout as the original April leaders gapped up and continued higher. TSLA, PLTR, HOOD, NVDA, RKLB all breaking out of multi-month bases. Action felt constructive with leaders outperforming. Tuesday through Thursday saw mixed broader market action with most stocks moving lower from the open and not participating, but the April leaders and mega caps in fresh bases continued showing strong relative strength. Friday ended the week with strong closes across the board in the big liquid leaders.
This has been one of the craziest markets, overnight gaps and volatility the past few weeks have made things extremely difficult. We have to continue to expect it will show back up at any moment. But there's also a risk to not being invested at all if we keep rallying into end of year in one of the strongest markets. Your experience in the market really is determined by whether you're in the right stocks or not. Being focused on the April leaders, it's been a little choppy but they're behaving very well. If you look outside of that, there are stocks that are extremely difficult. I'm focused on what's working.
SPOT and NFLX the two names that were structurally breaking last week have shown some constructive signs this week. If they fix up and follow the rest of leaders higher instead of leaders following them lower that would be ideal. Otherwise if they continue to breakdown as they sit below the 30-week it's not something to be ignored. META another big important leader has a broken and ugly looking chart after earnings. We want to see these stabilize.
135% exposure. TSLA is the largest position by far. GEV was bought, stopped, and re-entered this week.
Gap up across the board. Most names moved lower since the open slightly which is expected for a gap up. However the original April leaders continued moving higher after the gap which is a really good sign. So far it's looking like the action last week was an aggressive shakeout. Multiple original April leaders now breaking out, TSLA, HOOD, PLTR, NVDA, RKLB. If you were shaken out Wednesday or sitting in cash, add exposure, action looks like up is the path of least resistance.
Pretty mixed action. Most stocks moving lower from the open but SPOT and NFLX, the two April leaders that were structurally breaking, getting bought up and leading this morning. Got stopped out of GEV, tried again with a tight stop vs 560, second attempt working so far. NVDA showing powerful follow through from its failed breakout. I don't love that most stocks moved lower all day while indexes closed at highs but not overthinking it because TSLA acting great and NVDA showing powerful follow through, both very important stocks.
Fed meeting treated as a non-event. Another day similar to yesterday where most stocks moved lower since the open but the action in original April leaders and mega caps in fresh bases or coming out of them working well. With mega caps working well and being important, we have a few reporting today, GOOGL, MSFT, META, and reactions will set the tone. Either going to be fresh places for institutions to put money from stuff that's run a lot or we'll see them break down.
Slight gap down this morning which is always preferred over a gap up. Gap downs help show which are the strongest names by what gets bought up first. MDB was one of the first few names to move higher off the gap down, great sign, first to see buying. GEV leading the April leaders since the open. Good momentum off the gap down until second half and a weak close. Not overthinking it, we just gapped higher quickly a few times and this feels normal. TSLA not doing great but everything still structurally fine, back into its consolidation range where it can chop as long as it wants.
Slight gap up, would have preferred another gap down but let's see how the week ends. First 20 minutes good action with most names still moving higher after the open despite gap up. Seeing the divergence again, SPY and QQQ at lows of the day while leading names near highs or in upper range still. Always better to see leaders showing better RS than indexes and not vice versa. Good close today. TSLA strong close outside of consolidation sets it up well next week. GEV strong close above last week. PLTR strong close above $200. MDB rockstar of a candle.
It's easier to make money when you keep your focus on a few stocks. Almost all losses are timing issues not directional issues. In an uptrend 3 out of 4 stocks go up. If you focus in on a handful of names and find pivots and points of interest it might take a few tries until it finally works for you but your odds of making money go way up versus jumping around to new names all the time.
You might have to get a few tries until it works but when you do the math and the position is sized up with risk reward really skewed, even if you get stopped 2-3 times before it sticks the gains more than take care of the losses. Tighter stops are more likely to be stopped out but allow your position size to be much bigger with the same dollar risk. If the trade works the upside is much more. That's the approach with GEV this week, tight 1.5% stop allowed sizing up to 35%.
Gap ups ruin charts, mess up buying opportunities, and usually fade. Gap downs as long as you're in an uptrend allow you to see the demand. Do they put in a low early? Which stocks go green first? Those are the ones that there's the most demand for because any weakness they get bought up. Thursday's gap down showed MDB was the first to get bought, confirming it as the RS leader.
What helps have conviction that something will breakout is when other names in the group have already broken out. Groups move together so instead of just being a nice random chart it's also in a currently strong group that is breaking out so it has more wind at its back. MDB in software with SNOW already having broken out is a good example of this.
When the market is in a downtrend and there's nothing to do from the long side, track a watchlist called relative strength, mostly high quality growth names consolidating near their highs. When the market finally bottoms these same stocks begin breaking out. The way to tell if it could be the beginning of a new uptrend is whether you have stocks leading and following through.