Oct 20 – Oct 24, 2025
Nick SchmidtOctober 25, 2025
Wednesday was the first time that things really looked truly broken where a correction felt like the likeliest thing coming. But by the end of week everything that broke major levels had reclaimed it in a constructive way. When breakdowns fail to follow through, it can be very bullish.
The past 2 weeks showed extreme volatility, very wide ranges, unpredictable price action, and headline-driven moves. We need to account for this and keep risk in focus. In real-time we don't know if this was a shakeout before a rip or first signs of serious breakdown coming. Structural damage is currently isolated to only SPOT and NFLX, both below the 30-week, which are red flags. Ideally they fix up next week and follow the rest of leaders instead of leaders following them lower.
From the original April leaders, everything besides SPOT and NFLX looks good. Focus remains on slowly adding exposure in names showing crazy relative strength like GEV, PLTR, MDB, TSLA, DAVE in their multi-month bases. If we fail you're not chopped up because you're adding gradually. If we go higher you're positioned in stocks coming out of multi-month bases which will have strong new trends. Until we see a breakdown confirmed, focus on weekly structure and avoiding overtrading.
98% exposure. Trimmed TSLA before earnings from 91% to 79%. PLTR held at 19% since it never broke the tight area.
Very nice constructive Monday. Good internals mid-day for a gap up. All of the most important names higher from the open: TSLA, UBER, SPOT, PLTR, CRWD, NFLX, DASH, HOOD, MSTR, DAVE, NVDA, META, RKLB. Still yet to see a single chart breakdown from a weekly perspective. Everything is holding key levels or basing. Eyes on NFLX earnings aftermarket Tuesday to set the tone.
Mild open, no major direction which is fine. We don't need direction every day, sometimes the best days are nothing days. TSLA trading extremely tight range ahead of earnings Wednesday, love the tight range ahead of EPS. Several focus list names perking up and coming up the right side of their bases: DAVE, SPOT, MDB.
The first time that things really looked truly broken where a correction felt like the likeliest thing coming. Took a small NFLX position in the first 10 minutes as it moved higher off the open, sold later for small loss. Sold a bit of TSLA to lighten up before EPS. A lot of names hit hard but well off their lows closing with large lower wicks, buyers stepped in. TSLA very volatile after hours. Based on NFLX and GEV action I will assume more weakness is a high probability.
A very nice surprise to see today with the TSLA gap down being bought up aggressively. As of now with today's action all of the original leaders besides NFLX are structurally intact still. They have recovered key levels so far. PLTR and MDB right now look absolute best of the best from a RS standpoint. Just because you see stuff moving up and acting well today doesn't mean start chasing and buying. We really need to be patient and focus on overall structure.
Fairly slow day, no major direction which is good to see after a morning gap. After a wild week both HOOD and NVDA weekly charts look solid after each looked pretty rough mid-week. Overall everything besides NFLX and SPOT ended up closing the week looking pretty good. Wednesday was the first time things really looked truly broken but by end of week everything that broke major levels had reclaimed it in a constructive way, making a potential giant shakeout. Every day I usually plan on doing nothing. My activity revolves around: do I need exposure? If so then try to get positioned until it works then hopefully just don't do anything else.
Something I like to keep in the back of my mind especially when buying weakness: in every cycle there will be dozens of pullbacks but only 1 top. Purely from an odds standpoint, if you just focus on structure and managing risk during each period of weakness and treat it like it's just a pullback, you will be right much more often than wrong.
There is never a rush to do anything. Sometimes even if a stock looks great but I feel urgency I will disregard. Can't operate long-term under that urgency feeling and you don't need to either. The best entries come from patience, not from FOMO.
Every day I usually plan on doing nothing. I never go into each day thinking I'm gonna be buying or selling anything. My activity revolves around: do I need exposure? If so then try to get positioned until it works then hopefully just don't do anything else. When I review my periods of good and bad the biggest difference is activity. Doing stuff when there's nothing to do.
Multi-month bases set the stage for strong sustainable moves. The April leaders have been consolidating for months and if money rotates back into them will have strong sustainable moves. Buying stuff in multi-month bases keeps you safest because the bases will really only break if the market corrects, and normal weakness or pullbacks will be minimal.