Sep 15 – Sep 19, 2025
Nick SchmidtSeptember 21, 2025
A good quote from William O'Neil that explains why I keep the leader list the same from April lows: "If the original market leaders begin to falter, and lower-priced, lower-quality, more-speculative stocks begin to move up, watch out! Laggards can't lead the market higher." The key word here is original. New leaders emerge as the market moves and rotates and the original leaders are allowed to rest. But within the same cycle they shouldn't crack.
This was a week where things started to feel like they might be shifting. If we close the week strong we are being led by liquid leaders for the first time in months that are done consolidating. That's a subtle but important change. Breakouts started following through and more trades started working the past couple days. Still difficult to navigate and make no mistake even though the market is going up continuously it's still hard trying to get positioned properly, but the environment is showing early signs of improving for breakout buyers.
The April leaders list remains the north star: PLTR, DAVE, CRWD, DASH, META, SPOT, HOOD, NVDA, TSLA, MSTR, NFLX, UBER, RKLB. The market won't top with that list holding up.
136% exposure. Sold HOOD to be quicker shuffling positions on margin, ended up selling low of day. Added RKLB and BULL late week.
TSLA showing strength with close above $410. Failed breakouts like ANET aren't failure of the setup but a product of the current environment. Still choppy but leaders holding up.
Difficult navigation continues. Make no mistake even though the market is going up continuously, it's still difficult trying to get positioned properly. Price contraction with higher lows in RIVN exactly like TSLA, tightening of price action is a sign of controlled accumulation.
Most leaders moving lower since open ahead of Fed decision. Choppy and volatile action expected until Fed. Preferred seeing weakness going into Fed rather than rallying into it. The only data point that matters today is the close. Both retests and shakeout-recovers are valid entry signals, one isn't better than the other.
Strong day across the board. Leaders moving higher since open pushing highs. AI momentum dominating with semis, software, quantum, genomics leading. The market continues to be led by AI infrastructure and groups that benefit from AI innovation. My conviction behind trades is mostly correlated with the length of the base. Bigger bases means the move out can be much larger and more sustainable.
Strong week close. First time in months being led by liquid leaders done consolidating. April leaders list intact, treating it as my north star. Subtle environment shift the past 2 days with breakouts following through and more trades working. The market won't top with that list holding up.
When price action contracts with higher lows, it indicates controlled accumulation, always something to pay attention to. RIVN price is contracting with higher lows exactly like TSLA. The tightening of price action like this is a sign of controlled accumulation and always something to pay attention to.
Both a retest and a shakeout-and-recover of a level is good. One isn't better than the other. If a level gets shaken out and recovered it's still displaying structure. SNOW and LMND showed both clean retests and shakeout-recoveries can work equally well.
My conviction behind trades is mostly correlated with the length of the base. Bigger bases means that the move out of it can be much larger and more sustainable. Focus on multi-month or multi-year bases over short-term flags for better risk/reward.
If we close the week strong we are being led by liquid leaders for the first time in months that are done consolidating. That's a subtle but important change. Breakouts started following through and more trades started working. First signs that the environment may be shifting from just weakness trades to breakouts actually working.
The market won't top with that list holding up. I treat it as my north star. The key names: PLTR, DAVE, CRWD, DASH, META, SPOT, HOOD, NVDA, TSLA, MSTR, NFLX, UBER, RKLB. Within the same cycle the original leaders shouldn't crack. New leaders emerge as the market rotates but the originals are the health indicator.