Jun 30 – Jul 3, 2025
Nick SchmidtJuly 6, 2025SPY+1.70%QQQ+1.48%
Two big sales this week. Sold PLTR Monday after weeks of underperformance at highs and sold HOOD Tuesday into the vertical on enormous volume. HOOD was the first position to cross +100% YTD and that kind of vertical blast usually means it needs to base before offering a re-entry.
Short week with the July 4th holiday but the market continues to grind higher. Half cash now and using the weekend to screen for fresh setups.
Sold PLTR and HOOD. Three positions, half cash. Re-deploying profits over the weekend.
Sold PLTR after weeks of underperformance at highs. Bought April 10 at $88.78, out at $137.86 for +55%.
Sold HOOD into the vertical blast on enormous volume. Bought May 6 at $47.63, out at $98.50 for +107%.
I've been expecting a pullback for over a month and if I traded that expectation instead of what was in front of me I'd be having an awful year. The market doesn't care what I think should happen. PLTR was underperforming so I sold it. HOOD went vertical so I sold into it. Both were just trading what I saw, not what I expected to happen next.
I keep waiting for perfect setups and missing stocks that have the right underlying structure but a messy chart on the surface. UPWK was a good example, it looked messy but when you understood the structure it made sense. I think I need to focus less on the textbook pattern and more on what the price action is actually telling me about supply and demand.
After a high-volume thrust the temptation is to call it a trend change immediately. But the real confirmation is the first higher low because that proves buyers are willing to step in at a higher price. NKE had the thrust but no higher low yet and jumping in before that confirmation is how you get caught in a dead cat bounce.